Beyond the Dip: What the 2025 Port Volume Decline Signals for US Logistics Strategy

Top 10 U.S. ports just posted a 6.6% YoY import drop in September 2025. The NRF projects sub-2.0m TEU months for October–December, with 12–19% YoY declines, and double-digit declines persisting into January–February 2026. At port level, Los Angeles imports fell 7.6% YoY in September. Below, we turn these numbers into concrete actions on pricing, routing, and inventory.

What the latest numbers show

A short summer rebound (frontloading) gave way to renewed contraction. The month-by-month pattern is clear:

2025 month	Inbound YoY (Top 10)
May	-6.6%
June	-8.3%
July	+3.2% (frontloading)
August	+0.2% (frontloading)
September	-6.6%

National outlook: monthly imports below 2.0m TEU for the rest of the year, then further declines into early 2026. Port-level data confirm the downshift, with Los Angeles showing lower imports and total moves versus last year.

Why this downturn is different

Policy, not just demand, is driving timing.
July–August gains were pulled forward ahead of tariff deadlines and grace-period cutoffs. When the window closed, volumes fell back.

The U.S. is diverging from global flows.
Global container volumes set records through August while U.S. inbound softened. Far East exports rose year over year at the same time U.S. ports turned down. The implication is U.S.-specific pressure, not a global trade collapse.

Momentum has turned.
Trailing indicators have decelerated for months. With sub-2.0m TEU months expected through year-end, planning to last year’s averages will miss.

Strategic risk for LSPs

Forecasting and pricing reality check
National projections show double-digit YoY declines through Q4 2025 and into early 2026. Budget and price to this baseline now; waiting for a quick reversion risks under-recovering costs.

Frontloading is over — the demand signal is clean
The July–August lift was timing. September’s renewed decline is the better guide for Q4–Q1 plans.

‘Switch ports’ isn’t a strategy
Even if a gateway pivot trims dwell or D&D, the national outlook stays weak. Protect yield with value-added services, not just lane changes.

West Coast concentration = fixed-cost risk
If your drayage or CFS capacity was expanded for the summer surge, right-size now or carry idle cost into 2026.

Plan to policy dates, not quarters
Resourcing should align to the days around tariff milestones; that is where spikes and slumps concentrate.

Expect volatility around a lower mean
Month-to-month swings will persist, but the average has shifted down. Update reorder points and SLAs on current lead-time distributions, not last year’s means.

Duration risk is real
Absent policy change, declines are expected to continue well into 2026. Avoid MQCs or commitments that assume a near-term rebound.

Client and lane concentration risk
If a large share of revenue depends on one tariff-exposed lane or customer, model a downside case and de-risk now.

Network and inventory implications

Lane mix and port choice: Expect some rebalancing toward Gulf and Southeast gateways for certain commodities and routings, but do not count on volume growth to follow.
Contracting: Build flexibility into MQCs and surcharges. Keep room for mid-term adjustments if tariff timing shifts.
Inventory: Frontloading distorted history. Re-baseline door-to-door lead times using current transit, dwell, and empty-return patterns.

How to operationalize this in your visibility stack

Make these capabilities standard so plans stay current as conditions change:

Event-based container tracking across gate-in/out, vessel depart/arrive, delivery, and empty return.
Multi-carrier, global coverage to see origin changes early and anticipate transshipment risk.
Predictive exception alerts for ETA variance and milestone slippage tied to free-time exposure.
API/webhook integration to push updates into ERP/TMS and trigger automated actions (pre-pulls, rebookings, holds).
Shareable, branded views to cut status inquiries and align partners on the same timestamps.

This is the operating model TRADLINX supports: real-time tracking by container number, unified multi-carrier visibility, handling-event monitoring, and integrations for automated workflows.

Bottom line

Treat 2025–Q1 2026 as a structural reset in U.S. inbound flows. Plan with a lower baseline, higher variance, and frequent policy-driven timing shocks. Teams that keep container-level visibility tight, automate exception handling, and update plans weekly will protect cost and service through this cycle.