A Turning Point in Trade Flows
As Chinese exports to the US decline, new routes and markets are emerging fast. Recent logistics data shows that container volumes are dropping at major US ports while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU are rising. Trade flows are shifting in 2025, and the scale of change is hard to ignore.
This is not just a short-term response to tariffs. It signals a deeper restructuring of global supply chains, with long-term implications for logistics providers, forwarders, and shippers.
In this post, we examine why trade is bypassing the US, where it’s heading instead, and how global supply chains are adapting under pressure.
Tariffs Return — and So Do Trade Shifts
In August 2025, the United States is set to reinstate tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports:
- 10% base tariff on general goods
- 20% on fentanyl-linked items
- 25% under Section 301 on sensitive product categories
Combined, some shipments could face up to 55% total duties. China is considering a countermeasure tariff of around 34%, but a resolution appears unlikely in the near term.
Container Volume Is Dropping at US Ports
The effect is already visible on the ground:
- June 2025: US container imports fell 7.9% YoY
- May 2025: Down 6.6% from the previous year
This marks only the third time in 60 years that the US has seen back-to-back annual import volume declines, following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Macro Impacts Are Building
- Inflation: CPI projected to rise by up to 2.3%
- GDP: Estimated drag of 0.9 percentage points for 2025
- State-level pain: US farm and service exporters to China are already reporting significant volume and revenue losses
With container flows shifting and port throughput falling, logistics professionals are now forced to reassess capacity, routing, and risk across their networks.
Where the Trade Is Going Instead
As US-bound trade slows, Chinese exporters are redirecting goods to faster-growing, lower-barrier markets. DHL and customs data for the first half of 2025 show sharp increases in exports to regions like ASEAN, Africa, and the UK.
Export Growth by Region (H1 2025)
| Region | Export Change |
|---|---|
| US | -10.7% |
| UK | +7.4% |
| ASEAN | +12 to 13% |
| Africa | +18.9 to 21% |
| EU | +6.9% |
China is offering tariff-free access to 53 African countries, expanding trade partnerships through infrastructure projects and finance programs. Bilateral trade with Africa rose 12.4% in the first five months of 2025 alone.
Shift in Shipping Patterns
The change is showing up in ocean freight dynamics:
- Asia–Europe container rates have overtaken transpacific rates for the first time in years
- Asia–South America and intra-Asia trades are growing well above global averages
- Asia–US trades are seeing excess capacity, blank sailings, and falling spot rates
This rerouting is not just about bypassing tariffs. Exporters are also targeting emerging consumer markets and diversifying away from overexposed corridors. China’s outbound volumes remain strong overall; but the geography is changing fast.
How Rerouting Works and Why It’s Durable
Rerouting is not just a workaround. It has become a structural strategy in global trade. Exporters are shifting goods away from direct US routes, either by shipping to new destinations or through intermediary countries that allow for lower tariffs.
What Does Rerouting Look Like?
- Direct Redirection: Chinese goods now flow directly to ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe
- Third-Country Routing: Products are lightly assembled or repackaged in places like Vietnam or Mexico before being re-exported to the US
- Supply Chain Reconfiguration: Intermediate goods are shipped to third countries where they’re transformed into finished products, avoiding high tariff categories
Trade Deflection in Action
- Chinese exports to the US fell 21% in April 2025
- More than 50% of Chinese value-added goods arriving in the US now pass through Mexico
- 21% come via other Asian economies like Vietnam and South Korea
Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are seeing double-digit increases in imports from China, which they then re-export to the US and EU. This creates new regional trade hubs and logistics corridors.
Is Rerouting Here to Stay?
Evidence suggests it is:
- High Volume: Rerouted flows now make up more than half of residual exports in certain product categories
- Business Incentives: Companies benefit as long as tariff differentials exist and transformation rules permit reclassification
- Investment Commitments: Manufacturers and logistics providers have invested in third-country hubs to sustain these flows
- Limited Enforcement: Customs checks are increasing, but origin tracing remains costly and difficult to police at scale
Unless trade rules are significantly tightened, rerouting will likely remain a core feature of global logistics strategy.
Impacts on US and European Logistics Providers
The ripple effects of trade rerouting are being felt across the logistics sector. US-based forwarders face volume drops and compliance headaches, while European providers are seeing opportunity mixed with volatility.
US Forwarders and 3PLs
Challenges are mounting for US-based logistics service providers (LSPs):
- Volume Loss: Some West Coast ports report container throughput down more than 40% on certain lanes
- Rate Instability: Forwarders are moving away from annual contracts to flexible, spot-based models
- Compliance Costs: Customs clearance times are up 120%; brokerage fees for tariff code processing have tripled
- Margin Pressure: Front-loading surges followed by shipment lulls are eroding profitability
- Market Consolidation: Smaller forwarders risk being pushed out or acquired by larger firms
European Forwarders and 3PLs
While also impacted, European providers are adapting differently:
- Increased Volume: Ports like Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp report higher inbound traffic as Chinese exports pivot
- Warehouse Demand: Need for local storage and distribution is growing
- Digital Investment: Firms are adopting automation and AI tools to manage complexity and ensure compliance
- Service Diversification: Clients are demanding omnichannel support, customs risk management, and flexible routing
- Sustainability Compliance: EU green logistics rules are accelerating investments in carbon tracking and clean transport
Logistics Response Summary
| Category | US Providers | European Providers |
|---|---|---|
| Volumes | Sharp decline | Mixed, some rising |
| Compliance | Costly, fast-changing | High, with sustainability focus |
| Service Needs | Customs, spot capacity | Omnichannel, green logistics |
| Tech Investment | Urgent (visibility, automation) | High priority (AI, tracking) |
| Market Structure | Consolidation accelerating | Expansion and specialization |
Across both markets, only the most flexible, tech-enabled, and diversified LSPs are likely to thrive as rerouting reshapes trade flows.
Long-Term Supply Chain Implications
While rerouting offers flexibility, it also introduces new supply chain challenges. As companies shift away from direct US trade routes, they must adapt to a more fragmented, complex logistics landscape.
Opportunities
- Shock Absorption: Rerouted networks help companies respond faster to policy shifts and port disruptions
- Supplier Diversification: Nearshoring, friendshoring, and multi-shoring reduce reliance on any single region
- Regionalization: Production closer to consumer markets enhances inventory control and delivery speed
- Technology Investment: Digital supply chain platforms enable dynamic fulfillment and visibility across new lanes
Risks and Challenges
- Higher Costs: More complex routing, new customs regimes, and fragmented sourcing raise logistics and compliance expenses
- Volatile Supply: Volume surges and lane shifts create forecasting problems and warehouse mismatches
- Compliance Risks: Origin reclassification and tariff-code routing bring regulatory scrutiny and enforcement threats
- Cyber Exposure: As digital reliance grows, risks multiply across partners with varying security standards
Strategic Supply Chain Trends
| Trend | Opportunity | Challenge |
|---|---|---|
| Nearshoring | Faster delivery, lower transit risk | Higher production costs |
| Friendshoring | Reduced exposure to hostile policy | Limited vendor pool |
| Multi-shoring | Network redundancy | Coordination and oversight |
| Digitalization | Faster decisions, visibility | Integration and data security |
To thrive in the rerouting era, supply chain leaders must blend technology, regional knowledge, and regulatory foresight. The most resilient firms are investing now in diversified networks and dynamic planning tools that match the new geography of trade.
The rerouting of global trade in 2025 is more than a tactical response to tariffs.As China diversifies its export destinations and logistics providers recalibrate their networks, the traditional dominance of US-bound trade lanes is weakening.
This transformation presents both risk and opportunity. Forwarders and 3PLs that adapt through digital investment, service diversification, and regional expansion will be best positioned to navigate this volatile environment. At the same time, firms that fail to adjust may face margin compression, compliance strain, and diminished competitiveness.
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