How US Tariffs Reshaped 2025 Container Flows From China, Alt Asia And Mexico

TL;DR

US container imports stalled in late 2025. October 2025 volumes reached about 2.31 million TEUs, essentially flat versus September and 7.5 percent below October 2024, leaving year to date growth at only around 0.9 percent.
China lost volume year on year, even with a short term rebound. Shipments from China fell around 16 percent year on year in October, after a sharper drop in September, although they recovered slightly month on month.
Vietnam, India and other Alt Asia origins gained share earlier in the year, then hit a plateau. Several Southeast Asian origins posted strong year on year growth in mid 2025, but by October they were also registering month on month declines.
Mexico benefited from nearshoring but did not replace China one for one. The US goods trade deficit with Mexico widened, signalling sustained demand, yet container volumes look more like a steady climb than a surge.
For LSPs, the key lesson is about behaviour, not a single country. Frontloading ahead of tariff changes, shallow peaks and faster slowdowns are now features to plan for on China, Alt Asia and Mexico lanes.

1. What Actually Happened To US Imports In 2025

Headlines about tariffs and “import recessions” are easy to find. For operators, the more useful question is what really changed in containers and seasonality.

According to leading container tracking analytics, US containerized imports in October 2025 totaled about 2.31 million TEUs. That is:

Down just 0.1 percent month on month from September
Down about 7.5 percent year on year compared with October 2024
Leaving imports for the first ten months of 2025 only around 0.9 percent above the same period in 2024

In other words, 2025 did not end in a collapse. It ended in something more subtle and harder to price:

Very strong volumes in the first half as importers frontloaded cargo ahead of tariff changes
A sharp pullback in September
A “non peak” October where volumes stayed high in absolute terms but underperformed normal seasonal patterns

National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates forecasts now point to further declines in November and December, with inbound volumes expected to fall below 2 million TEUs per month. That would make late 2025 look more like an early correction to tariff and demand shocks than a classic holiday peak.

2. China: From Short Rebound To Tariff Driven Slump

For most LSPs, the China story is still the anchor. Several things happened at once.

After a short rebound in July and August, China origin imports dropped sharply in September. Descartes data shows September volumes from China falling more than 20 percent year on year, with China’s share of US imports slipping by more than 1 percentage point compared with August.
In October, China volumes rose about 5 percent month on month, but were still roughly 16 percent lower than a year earlier. Categories such as furniture, toys, sporting goods and electrical machinery all recorded double digit year on year declines.
These moves coincided with a series of tariff decisions, including higher rates on some Chinese goods and the introduction of targeted measures such as so called “fentanyl tariffs”. Importers responded by pulling orders forward earlier in the year, then cutting back sharply when the new regime became clearer.

The result on the ground for forwarders and shippers looked like this:

Summer volumes that were stronger than underlying demand justified, driven by tariff timing
Short booking windows and fast changes in allocation as customers raced to move specific HS codes before rate changes
Then a sudden slowdown in September and October, especially in discretionary categories such as toys, footwear and some electronics

This is important for 2026 planning. The structural dependency on China has not disappeared. What has changed is how quickly volumes can swing when tariff headlines move and when buyers have already pre loaded the quarter.

3. Alt Asia: Vietnam, India And ASEAN Gained Share Then Hit A Plateau

Whenever China comes under tariff pressure, the first question is where the volume moved. In 2025 there was a clear answer in mid year data, and a much more mixed picture by the autumn.

Descartes figures for August 2025 showed that US imports from several Asian origins were significantly higher year on year, even while China’s volumes declined. For example:

Vietnam origin imports were up by more than 25 percent versus August 2024
India and Thailand both recorded increases of more than 30 percent year on year
Indonesia also posted strong gains

This is consistent with what many teams have seen on the ground. Production and sourcing for footwear, apparel, furniture and some electronics has continued to diversify into Vietnam, India and wider ASEAN, and 2025 tariff uncertainty pushed more orders in that direction.

However, by October the pattern shifted:

US container imports from Vietnam fell about 4.8 percent month on month
India volumes dropped about 19 percent month on month
Thailand and Germany also saw mid single digit declines

In other words, Alt Asia origins benefited from China’s pullback earlier in the year, but they did not escape the late 2025 slowdown. As inventories normalized and US demand cooled, importers cut orders across the board, not only in China.

For operators, this reinforces a practical point. It is correct to treat Vietnam, India and ASEAN as medium term winners from tariff driven China diversification. It is risky to assume that this translates into straight line growth in containers. These origins are now exposed to the same tariff cycles, demand swings and frontloading behaviour that hit China first.

4. Mexico And Nearshoring: Strong But Not A Simple China Substitute

Mexico sits in a different bucket. Nearshoring narratives suggest a simple shift from China to Mexico, especially for finished goods bound for US consumers. The numbers tell a more nuanced story.

On the trade value side, the US goods trade deficit with Mexico over the twelve months through August 2025 was roughly 190 billion dollars. That makes Mexico the second largest source of US trade deficits after China and ahead of Vietnam.
Monthly US trade data shows a consistent pattern through 2025. Imports from Mexico remain high, with monthly deficits typically between 14 and 18 billion dollars. There is no evidence of a collapse.
On the tariff side, Mexico’s average effective tariff into the US remains relatively low compared with other partners, which supports continued integration under USMCA and makes Mexico an attractive alternative for some manufacturing footprints.

Container statistics tell a slightly different story to the more dramatic headlines.

Mexico appears in the top group of origins in Descartes reports, yet its containerized exports to the US in 2025 look more like a steady, modestly rising series than a sudden surge.
Month on month changes are generally small compared with the swings seen for China or some Alt Asia origins.

For LSPs, the operational takeaway is straightforward:

Mexico is increasingly important in contract portfolios, particularly for automotive, appliances and some consumer goods
It is not a one for one replacement for China on volume or product mix
Mexico’s stability can be used as a counterweight to more volatile Asia lanes when planning overall risk and capacity

5. What LSPs Should Change In Their 2026 Playbook

If you strip away the noise, 2025 US import data is a live case study in how customers behave under tariff uncertainty and how that behaviour shows up in containers. Three practical shifts stand out for 2026.

1) Expect more frontloading and shallower peaks

Frontloading ahead of tariff dates brought forward orders that might otherwise have moved in late 2025 or early 2026
The result is a year that looks strong in the first half and then disappoints in peak season, with October volumes below typical peak ranges
Forwarders need to factor this into allocation and contract discussions, especially when customers are planning “just in case” inventory strategies on tariff sensitive SKUs

2) Treat China, Alt Asia and Mexico as a single behavioural system, not separate stories

China volumes will likely remain under pressure whenever tariff headlines intensify, but the containers often show up elsewhere in Asia or in Mexico rather than disappearing completely
Vietnam, India, Thailand and Indonesia continue to gain share in certain sectors, but they also react to the same demand and policy signals
Mexico benefits from nearshoring and USMCA, yet its rise is gradual, and production capacity limits matter just as much as tariffs

From a planning perspective, this argues for looking at regional baskets of origins when you model risk, rather than treating each country separately. For example:

China plus key Alt Asia origins for consumer goods and electronics
Mexico plus US and Canada plants for automotive and white goods

3) Build tariff aware scenarios into lane and port decisions

Use monthly data as early warning when a combination of tariff moves and frontloading starts to bend the trend line
Stress test port choices and inland routings based on different assumptions for China share versus Alt Asia and Mexico share
Consider how quickly you can re allocate capacity between West Coast and East Coast, or between Gulf and Pacific routings, if origin mixes shift in a single quarter

6. Reading These Shifts With TRADLINX

For TRADLINX users, the value of this kind of macro view is not in predicting exact TEU counts for next October. It is in making better use of the shipment and lane data you already have.

Lane monitoring. Track how your actual shipment mix across China, Alt Asia and Mexico is evolving compared with the market level moves described here.
Contract preparation. Combine visibility data on lead times, roll rates and transshipment exposure with macro indicators when you prepare for 2026 contract talks on Asia and Mexico lanes.
Exception focus. Use alerts and dashboards to catch when volumes for particular HS codes or origins diverge sharply from plan in the weeks before and after known tariff dates.

Tariffs will continue to move. Frontloading will come and go. The constant is the need to see lane level reality quickly and to link it back to decisions on capacity, contracts and routing. That is where combining market data with a visibility platform like TRADLINX makes the shift from headlines to action.

Sources

Descartes Systems Group, November Global Shipping Report: October U.S. Container Imports, November 2025.
Reuters, U.S. container imports fall in October amid tariff driven caution, 10 November 2025.
FreightWaves, Rare October as container volumes, China recovery diverge, 13 November 2025.
National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, Monthly imports expected to drop below 2 million TEU as tariffs continue to rise, 8 October 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with China (C5700), 2025 data.
Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Monthly Trade Update, November 2025.
Longbridge / WallstreetCN, Tariff gloom looms, U.S. container imports in October fell 7.5% year on year, approaching the critical threshold of 2 million TEUs, 10 November 2025.

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