Lunar New Year 2026: What’s Different This Time (Geo-policy + Ops Watchlist)

Lunar New Year 2026 falls on Tuesday, February 17. Expect production slowdowns across China and much of East/Southeast Asia around that week, with many suppliers extending closures beyond official public holidays. Plan buffers on both sides of the date rather than relying on a single national calendar.

TL;DR — Actions to take now

Keep critical SKUs off the LNY week and the two restart weeks. Bring-forward bookings for anything that must arrive in late Feb–early Mar.
Hedge against late blank sailings. Split key POs across two sailings/services and avoid <24h transshipment buffers; carriers have a habit of adding cancellations late as demand firms around LNY. (See Sea-Intelligence trend notes in “References”.)
Model EU cost effects for 2026. CBAM moves from reporting to the definitive regime (financial obligations start in 2026) and EU Maritime ETS coverage rises (70% of 2025 emissions surrendered by Sept 30, 2026). Reflect these in landed-cost assumptions for EU-bound cargo.
Watch chokepoints that amplify LNY. Red Sea/Suez reopening remains uncertain; Panama Canal’s FY2026 plan implies transits below pre-drought levels—both can elongate routes and compress schedules around the restart window.

2026-specific watchouts (policy & network)

1) EU CBAM shifts from reporting to costs

What changes: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) leaves its transitional, reporting-only phase and applies in its definitive regime from January 2026. Importers of covered goods (e.g., iron & steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen; plus some downstreams later) must register as CBAM declarants and prepare for certificate purchases aligned to embedded emissions. Some timing mechanics may defer the first purchase and surrender steps into 2027 for 2026 imports, but financial obligations begin with 2026 trade—budget for it now.

2) EU Maritime ETS coverage increases again

Shipping companies must surrender allowances for 70% of their 2025 verified emissions by Sept 30, 2026 (after 40% for 2024 in 2025), moving to 100% thereafter. Expect continued ETS surcharges on EU-calling services during your Q1 2026 planning horizon.

3) Blank sailings behavior around LNY

Historical pattern: lines sometimes announce relatively low early cancellations, then add more late to protect utilization. Plan for late changes again around LNY 2026; keep alternates for feeder legs and avoid knife-edge connections through major hubs during the two weeks before and after Feb 17.

4) Chokepoints can stretch schedules

Red Sea / Suez: As of October 2025, major carriers signal no quick, broad return to Red Sea routing despite ceasefire headlines; treat Suez as an uncertainty for early 2026 schedules.
Panama Canal: FY2026 outlooks suggest average daily transits below pre-drought capacity (e.g., ~33/day vs. ~36 historically). If you rely on Panama (Asia→USEC/USG), expect occasional knock-on effects during the LNY restart period.

Count-back planner (from Tue, Feb 17, 2026)

T−10 to T−8 weeks (Dec 9–23): Finalize must-sail SKUs; request origin cut-offs (CY/SI/VGM) and feeder schedules; prioritize services with generous transship buffers.
T−7 to T−5 weeks (Dec 24–Jan 13): Bring forward cargo that would otherwise load during LNY week; confirm destination warehouse hours and appointment capacity for late-Feb/early-Mar arrivals.
T−4 to T−2 weeks (Jan 20–Feb 3): Expect late blank announcements or port omissions; prep alternates (earlier feeder, different hub) and avoid <24h connections.
T−1 week → T-week (Feb 10–17): Factory closures dominate; focus on documentation completeness and equipment flows; verify transshipment windows for in-transit freight.
T+1 to T+2 weeks (Feb 18–Mar 3): Plan for restart congestion; stagger replenishment bookings and avoid single-vessel dependency on critical SKUs.

Booking & operations tactics that reduce LNY risk

Front-load feeders into hubs. Feeder networks compress around LNY; book earlier than usual if your mainline relies on feeder legs.
Split critical POs across two vessels/services. Hedge against late blanks or port omissions.
Build real buffers at transshipment hubs. Target ≥48h connections two weeks before and after LNY; avoid <24h where possible.
Ship documents early. Align SI/VGM and commercial docs well ahead of gate cut-offs; a single missing field near the holiday can push you into a blanked week.
Pre-clear where eligible. Low-risk/AEO lanes can shave days during the post-holiday surge.
Reefer & DG: Book earlier; power points and specialized slots tighten first in restart weeks.

Landed-cost checkpoints for 2026 (EU focus)

CBAM exposure: Confirm HS/CN8 coverage and supplier emissions data pipeline; plan for certificate budgeting for 2026 imports (even if settlement mechanics slide into early 2027).
Maritime ETS: Expect carrier surcharges on EU calls; ensure finance models reflect 70% coverage for 2025 emissions surrendered in 2026, moving to 100% thereafter.
Scenario your POs: Run “pre-LNY ship” vs “post-LNY ship” with CBAM/ETS surcharges and known blank-sailing patterns to set realistic delivery and margin expectations.

Weekly “signal board” (5-minute Friday check)

Blank sailings & port omissions: Carrier advisories and Sea-Intelligence updates.
EU CBAM/ETS: Commission guidance and market notes on certificate mechanics and ETS pass-throughs.
Chokepoints: Red Sea status and ACP bulletins on Panama transits.

Notes & Sources

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