60-second executive take

  • Middle East disruption remains the defining global risk. Strait of Hormuz closure, route avoidance around Bab al-Mandab and the Suez corridor, port closures, and GPS jamming are creating a reliability problem that goes beyond simple anchorage wait times.
  • Africa is still the clearest congestion cluster in the hard numbers. Beira and Conakry remain the standout hotspots, while Mombasa, Tema, and Maputo continue to show enough pressure to affect schedule confidence and inland planning.
  • Europe and Asia are seeing more “busy and brittle” conditions than outright shutdowns. Antwerp, Rotterdam, Singapore, Manila, and Tanjung Pelepas are still moving cargo, but strikes, weather, yard density, and berth constraints are raising execution risk.

Risk tiers definition

  • Critical: Port closure, access restriction, or severe queue pressure already threatens schedule integrity and customer commitments.
  • High: Port remains operational, but clear congestion signals, berth pressure, weather disruption, labour action, or yard constraints are increasing delay risk.
  • Stable: Conditions are manageable for now, but planning teams should continue to monitor for rollover risk, bunching, or local disruption.

Global risk board

Method note: Average wait times refer to 7-day average vessel waiting time. Percentile figures use median congestion readings (P50). Long-tail risk indicates that a smaller group of shipments may face materially worse delays than the median port picture suggests.

LocationKey signalsTierLikely impactWhat LSPs should do now
Strait of Hormuz / wider Middle East corridorStrait closure continues; route avoidance remains widespread; GPS jamming persists; Bahrain and Salalah remain closed; many vessels sheltering offshoreCriticalImmediate routing disruption, ETA instability, skipped calls, transshipment knock-on effectsRevalidate routings shipment by shipment, pause standard lead-time assumptions, and prepare exception updates for exposed customers
Beira17.2-day average wait; P50 9.15 days; 8 vessels waiting; weather still disruptive despite some operational improvementCriticalSevere berth delay risk, inland planning slippage, and poor milestone reliabilityEscalate all Beira-linked cargo, widen customer delivery windows, and verify each vessel’s latest berth outlook
Conakry22-day average wait; P50 7.19 days; 6 vessels waitingCriticalExtreme delay risk for imports and exports, with likely downstream disruption inlandReview alternate routing options where commercially viable and avoid firm customer commitments
Khor Al Fakkan / UAE-linked transshipment riskRegional ports largely operational, but Khor Al Fakkan is heavily congested amid wider Middle East instabilityHighConnection risk, feeder unreliability, and transshipment schedule slippageCheck transshipment exposure closely and reconfirm downstream vessel connections
Mombasa4.01-day average wait; prolonged congestion; equipment shortages; vessel bunching from off-window arrivals; P50 3.5 days; 13 vessels waitingHighBerth delays, reduced productivity, and uneven cargo handoff timingFlag time-sensitive East Africa cargo early and add extra planning buffer
Tema2.9-day average wait; severe congestion; recurring crane outages; non-window vessels face berth constraints; P50 2.31 daysHighExport acceptance pressure and higher berth uncertaintyTighten cut-off planning and avoid assuming ad-hoc flexibility
Maputo4.5-day average wait; windy conditions continueHighSchedule drift and reduced berth predictabilityTreat as an active watch port and review inland handoff promises carefully
Antwerp / Zeebrugge1.95-day average wait at Antwerp; strike action disrupted pilotage and vessel movements; backlog expected after normalization; Antwerp also shows long-tail delay riskHighShort-term vessel backlog, terminal disruption, and uneven recoveryExpect after-effects beyond the strike itself and monitor terminal-specific recovery
Rotterdam1.55-day average wait; high winds, fog, traffic suspension, and 24–48 hour second-modality delays, with feeder peaks up to 72 hoursHighInland handoff disruption and feeder schedule instabilityKeep intermodal plans flexible and avoid overcommitting on tight follow-on moves
ManilaP50 1.34 days; 10 vessels waiting; medium congestion remains visible in the latest weekly snapshotHighModerate but persistent delay risk, especially for shipments with little schedule slackWatch for deterioration and protect customer promises on short lead-time cargo
Tanjung Pelepas2.0-day average wait; dynamic berthing; high yard density; berth availability reduced during crane-related worksHighReduced operational flexibility and risk of berth bunchingKeep close watch on berth planning and avoid optimistic transshipment assumptions
Singapore1.29-day average wait; terminals remain busy; yard utilization around 80–85%StableHub remains fluid, but short transshipment windows carry some riskMonitor connection-sensitive cargo and stay alert for bunching
Chittagong1.93-day average wait; 1–2 day berthing congestion; 15-hour suspension scheduled from 16 March evening to 17 March morningStableShort disruption window may create local backlog or missed timingAlert teams handling Bangladesh cargo and verify milestone timing around the suspension
Savannah2.58-day average wait; P50 1.21 days; 8 vessels waitingStableManageable congestion, but some queueing remainsKeep on watch rather than escalate
Vancouver / MontrealVessel waits remain moderate, but rail dwell is elevated at 8 days in Vancouver and 7 days in MontrealStableInland and rail-linked timing risk may outweigh berth delay itselfFocus on landside planning, not just port ETA

Critical tier deep dives

1) Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East disruption

What’s happening
This remains the biggest supply-chain risk in the current cycle. Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz are halted, route avoidance around nearby chokepoints continues, and GPS jamming in the Gulf is affecting navigation. While many regional ports are technically still operating, the broader network is functioning under abnormal conditions.

What this means
This is not a normal “congested port” story. The real issue is network instability: skipped calls, uncertain transshipment flows, delayed feeder links, and customer-facing ETAs that can shift even after cargo appears to be moving.

What to tell customers
Treat Middle East routings as exception freight until service patterns stabilize. Standard lead-time assumptions for Gulf-related cargo are not reliable right now.

Action checklist

  • Reconfirm routing and service-string assumptions before promising delivery dates.
  • Separate cargo already on water from cargo not yet gated in.
  • Ask carriers for revised call plans instead of relying on published schedules.
  • Communicate uncertainty ranges rather than one-date ETA promises.

2) Beira

What’s happening
Beira remains one of the clearest hard-congestion cases in this week’s source set. Average vessel waiting time has climbed to 17.2 days, and the latest percentile-based congestion snapshot still ranks Beira among the most delayed ports globally. Weather is still part of the story, even though carriers report some operational improvement.

What this means
The improvement signal is welcome, but the queue is still severe enough to affect berth confidence, landside planning, and customer communication. This is a port where “moving again” does not equal “predictable again.”

What to tell customers
Wider delivery windows are necessary for Beira-linked cargo. Fast updates matter more than false precision.

Action checklist

  • Put all Beira cargo on active watch status.
  • Recheck inland planning that depends on berth certainty.
  • Review alternate routing only where the commercial case is strong.
  • Do not treat departure milestones as proof of predictable discharge timing.

3) Conakry

What’s happening
Conakry’s 22-day average wait time makes it one of the most severe queue situations in the current myKN update. The weekly congestion snapshot also keeps it in the highest-risk group by median waiting time.

What this means
This is a genuine service-reliability issue, not just a moderate slowdown. Cargo planning through Conakry needs explicit delay allowance.

What to tell customers
Expect prolonged waiting and uneven milestone progress. A realistic delay message now is better than repeated ETA revisions later.

Action checklist

  • Escalate customer accounts with Conakry exposure.
  • Check whether alternate ports or routings are commercially feasible.
  • Add berth and inland buffer to all planning assumptions.
  • Review detention and demurrage exposure proactively.

High tier snapshots

  • Mombasa: Congestion is being prolonged by equipment shortages and vessel bunching, making this one of the more actionable East Africa watch ports this week.
  • Tema: Crane outages and berth restrictions matter as much as the raw wait-time figure. This is a planning-discipline port, especially for non-window vessels.
  • Maputo: Wind-related disruption keeps timing fragile even without the same headline severity seen at Beira.
  • Antwerp / Zeebrugge: The strike may pass, but the vessel backlog can linger after operations resume more normally.
  • Rotterdam: Weather-led disruption and feeder delay peaks mean inland and short-sea execution deserve extra scrutiny.
  • Tanjung Pelepas: Berth works and high yard density keep this in the higher-risk transshipment group.
  • Manila: Not a shutdown story, but still a real medium-congestion port in the latest weekly snapshot and worth active monitoring.

Stable tier (monitor)

Singapore, Chittagong, Savannah, Vancouver, and Montreal sit in the monitor group this week. None of them currently justify broad contingency action, but each has a reason to stay on the radar: busy terminal conditions in Singapore, a defined operating suspension in Chittagong, moderate queueing in Savannah, and rail-dwell pressure in Canada.

For LSP teams, this is the zone where disciplined milestone tracking beats dramatic rerouting. The right move is tighter execution, not panic.


Disruption bulletin

  • Middle East route disruption remains active, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and vessels affected by route avoidance and GPS jamming.
  • Bahrain and Salalah remain closed, though terminal operations at Bahrain’s Khalifa Bin Salman Port are set to resume on 14 March at 06:00.
  • Belgium strike action disrupted Antwerp and Zeebrugge, with vessel backlog expected as operations normalize.
  • High winds disrupted operations in the United Kingdom and Rotterdam.
  • Chittagong will suspend operations for 15 hours from 16 March 17:00 to 17 March 08:00.
  • Arica is being impacted by heavy swells.

Forward lookout

Over the next 7–14 days, the main watchpoint is whether Middle East network disruption spills more visibly into adjacent transshipment hubs and service rotations. Reliability risk can spread faster than port-wait numbers alone suggest.

In Africa, the key question is whether Beira improves materially or remains stuck in a slow recovery pattern, while Conakry and Mombasa continue to warrant close attention. In Europe, Antwerp’s post-strike backlog and Rotterdam’s weather-related recovery deserve monitoring. In Asia, keep an eye on Tanjung Pelepas, Singapore, and Manila for any sign that busy-but-manageable conditions start tipping into wider delay.


Visibility note

“Many teams read congestion updates but still chase milestones manually. Tradlinx provides event-based container visibility (e.g., gate-in/out, vessel departure/arrival) and API integration so workflows and alerts can run directly inside your systems.”


Further Reading

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