Predictive Container ETA For LSPs: Data To Beat Carrier ETAs

Carrier ETAs move because schedules, hubs, and terminals move. LSPs improve accuracy by blending carrier events, AIS vessel positions, port call plans, and dwell history into a single ETA with confidence bands. This guide shows how to assemble that data, when to trust it, and how to present it so shippers make better decisions.

Why Carrier ETAs Drift

Schedule volatility — blank sailings, speed changes, or port omissions ripple through downstream ETAs.
Transshipment uncertainty — feeder spacing and missed connections introduce step changes rather than smooth delays.
Terminal variability — berth, yard, and gate conditions swing berth-to-availability by days, not hours.
Data lag — some carrier milestones update in batches, so published ETA trails what AIS and port calls already imply.

The Data Stack That Improves ETA

Carrier events — planned schedule, actual departure, transshipment milestones, and discharge confirmations give authoritative intent.
AIS positions — vessel latitude, longitude, speed-over-ground, and course validate pace against plan and show diversions early.
Port calls and notices — published lineups and terminal advisories surface berth changes and congestion signals ahead of carrier refreshes.
Dwell history — lane and terminal-specific berth-to-availability and yard-to-gate trends convert ATA into a realistic pick-up window.

How To Blend Signals Into A Better ETA

1) Track by service string and hub, not only by port pair

Two services on the same port pair can behave very differently. Build reliability cards per string and per transshipment hub, then weight those cards when your box is on that path.

2) Use AIS to sanity-check pace

Compute planned distance remaining versus speed-over-ground to estimate earliest and latest arrival windows. Flag divergence when pace implies an arrival outside the carrier window.

3) Separate ocean time from terminal time

Publish an ETA to berth and a berth-to-availability band. Customers plan better when discharge plus yard time is not hidden inside a single timestamp.

4) Add confidence bands, not just a date

Give a P50 and P90 ETA. Narrow the band after firm departure, again after pilot boarding, and again at first lift alongside. Widen the band if port advisories or weather warnings trigger thresholds.

5) Promote exceptions with action, not noise

Alert only when an ETA crosses a service-level boundary — for example, when the P90 slips past a delivery promise or the dwell band breaches your quoted range. Include a next-best option when possible.

Operational Playbook For LSP Teams

Before departure — validate booking against the intended service string, confirm transshipment hub, and set the initial ETA band from historical performance.
After departure — pivot to AIS pace checks and port call updates. Tighten bands once the vessel clears known congestion chokepoints.
At hub — monitor feeder spacing and missed-feeder ratios for that hub. If the risk of miss rises, surface alternates with cycle-time deltas.
At destination — convert ATA to availability using terminal-specific dwell history. Post last free day and alert at T minus 72 and T minus 24 hours.

What To Show Customers

Milestone timeline — ATD, transshipment ETA or ATA, ATA at destination, availability window, out-gate.
Two-part time — ETA to berth plus a labeled berth-to-availability band for that terminal.
Confidence — P50 and P90 markers with a one-line reason when the band widens or narrows.
Recovery choices — if a rollover risk crosses threshold, list the next feasible feeder or alternate string with impact on delivery date.

Common Edge Cases And How To Handle Them

Port omission — switch to the carrier’s designated alternate discharge and recompute trucking legs and free-time exposure. Do not reuse the old ETA without relabeling.
Weather detours — widen the band when the vessel slows below threshold for more than six hours, or when official advisories are active on the lane.
Data conflicts — when carrier and AIS disagree on location or ETA, show both with a one-line rationale and default to AIS for pace but carrier for intent.

Paste-Ready Language You Can Use In Quotes

ETA disclosure
“We publish ETA to berth and a separate berth-to-availability band based on terminal history. Confidence bands are updated at departure, pilot boarding, first lift, and berth. Alerts trigger only when the P90 crosses your delivery window or dwell exceeds the published band.”

Exception handling
“If rollover risk or a hub delay exceeds our threshold, we provide two resequencing options with cycle-time impact within four business hours.”

TRADLINX Ocean Visibility blends carrier events, vessel tracking, and terminal history to produce an ETA to berth and a labeled availability band. Set alert, receive daily reports and expose last free day and exception notes to your customers. Use the API to feed ETA bands into your TMS and customer portals.

Assumption Checks

Do not promise single timestamps — bands with confidence are more honest and reduce escalations.
Do not mix lanes — reliability is string and hub specific. Global averages mislead on local trades.
Do not hide dwell — availability drives trucking and free-time risk. Keep it separate from ocean time.

References

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