The January 29 to February 7 Logistics Risk Window

TL;DR | January 29 – February 7, 2026

This is a short but fragile window: multiple regions are entering recovery or compression phases at the same time, leaving little slack for rerouting or delay absorption.
Europe’s constraint is inland evacuation: Belgium’s rail strike and Germany’s winter recovery are converging on Central Europe.
North America’s risk is post-storm backlog: US East Coast ports are reopening, but drayage and rail capacity remain the bottleneck.
Asia offers no pressure relief: pre-Lunar New Year sailing compression is tightening berth access and schedule reliability.

The January 29 to February 7 Logistics Risk Window

As Europe struggles with inland evacuation, the United States moves through a slow recovery from a major winter storm, and Asia compresses outbound volumes ahead of Lunar New Year, global supply chains have very limited capacity to absorb delays or reroute cargo without cost escalation.

This creates a narrow window, roughly January 29 through the first week of February, where small execution failures can cascade into multi day delays.

Europe: Inland Evacuation Is the Binding Constraint

Belgium entered a nationwide rail strike on January 25, running through January 30 at 10:00 PM. During the strike period, only around 25 to 30 percent of normal rail services are operating under minimum service rules.

This is not a passenger inconvenience issue. It is directly affecting inland cargo evacuation from Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second busiest port complex.

What is happening on the ground

Rail evacuation from Antwerp to Germany, Switzerland, and the Ruhr region is severely constrained.
Yard density at container terminals is rising as discharged cargo cannot move inland at normal velocity.
Road transport is absorbing diverted volume, but truck capacity is finite and already under pressure.

When the strike ends on January 30, rail operations will not normalize immediately. Based on previous Belgian rail disruptions, a two to three day recovery period should be expected before schedules stabilize.

Why Germany amplifies the risk

Germany is still recovering from early January winter disruption. Hamburg’s berthing delays have eased compared to earlier in the month, but inland rail routes remain fragile. Sections of the Hanover to Göttingen corridor are still operating with restrictions, extending transit times by roughly 12 to 24 hours.

The combined effect is that Central European shippers have limited alternatives. Diversion to Bremerhaven or Wilhelmshaven is occurring, but this shifts congestion inland rather than removing it.

For cargo bound to southern Germany, Austria, or Switzerland, the constraint is not vessel arrival. It is inland evacuation capacity.

North America: Recovery Phase Is Slower Than the Storm

Winter Storm Fern peaked on January 24 to 25 and caused widespread disruption across US transportation networks. As of January 29, the acute weather event has passed, but the system is firmly in a recovery phase.

Ports are reopening, but flow is uneven

New York and New Jersey resumed limited operations from January 27, with elevated dwell times expected into early February.
Southeast ports are operating with reduced productivity due to lingering ice, access constraints, and staffing shortages.
Gate slot availability remains constrained as terminals prioritize backlog clearance.

Drayage and rail are the real bottlenecks

The most fragile segment is inland movement. Icy conditions across major freight corridors temporarily removed a significant share of truck capacity, and workforce availability at warehouses and depots dropped sharply during the storm period.

As freight begins moving again, drayage demand is rising faster than capacity can recover. Multiple logistics providers are advising shippers to add seven to ten days of buffer to lead times for late January and early February arrivals.

Class I railroads are operating under winter plans with shorter trains and reduced speeds. Yard congestion is expected as delayed volumes re enter the network.

Asia: No Slack Ahead of Lunar New Year

Asia is not experiencing a weather driven shock. It is experiencing a timing problem.

With Lunar New Year falling on February 17, carriers are blanking sailings to manage overcapacity. This is compressing cargo into fewer departures and tightening berth availability at key ports.

What this means operationally

Major ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Port Klang, and Busan are seeing rising yard density and vessel bunching.
Schedule reliability is deteriorating even where overall volumes are lower than last year.
Some vessels are omitting ports to recover schedules, creating secondary delays.

For shippers attempting to reroute cargo away from Europe or the US East Coast, Asia does not provide an easy release valve during this period. Capacity exists, but timing flexibility does not.

What This Means for Supply Chain Teams This Week

The defining feature of this window is not disruption. It is lack of slack.

What to prioritize now

Confirm inland evacuation plans, not just vessel arrival schedules, for Europe bound cargo.
Secure drayage and rail commitments early for US East Coast arrivals through early February.
Verify gate cutoff times and berth expectations for Asia origin shipments ahead of Lunar New Year.
Build buffer selectively around inland legs, not just ocean transit.

Most of these constraints will ease by mid February. Belgium’s rail system will normalize, US ports will clear storm backlog, and post Lunar New Year capacity will loosen.

Until then, execution discipline and real time visibility matter more than optimization. The margin for error is thin, and delays compound quickly.

Bottom Line

The January 29 to February 7 period is a convergence window. Multiple regions are operating in recovery or compression mode at the same time.

For logistics teams, the risk is not dramatic failure. It is quiet accumulation. Containers that do not move today are the ones that become emergencies next week.

Planning for this window is less about prediction and more about visibility, early confirmation, and avoiding false assumptions about available capacity.