US import outlook after frontloading: sub-2m TEU months and sectoral tariffs

Frontloading pulled demand forward. Expect softer volumes into year-end and new tariff lines on furniture and cabinets. November 10 remains a policy risk date for China tariffs. Plan A and B routings before you switch modes.

TRADLINX

October 16, 2025

2–3 minutes

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Who should read this Forwarders, NVOCCs, and shipper logistics teams serving US gateways that want a realistic Q4 to Q1 view for staffing, space, and landed-cost planning.

What the data says at a glance

Monthly imports likely below 2.0m TEU through December. NRF and Hackett Associates cite early peak and tariff frontloading as drivers.
Sectoral tariffs are live. 25 percent on upholstered furniture and on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities. Scheduled increases on January 1, 2026.
Policy risk marker. A US-China tariff truce that was extended in August is scheduled to expire on November 10 unless extended again or replaced.

What changes for Q4 to Q1

Volume mix Holiday goods were frontloaded. Expect softer Asia to US flows overall, with variability by port and commodity.
Carrier capacity moves Post-peak blank sailings are likely. That can tighten booking windows and create bunching on certain strings.
Category effects Furniture and cabinetry importers may pull forward or pause orders around January step-ups. Containers are not included in the sectoral tariff list.

Practical planning moves

Rebase forecasts Model sub-2.0m TEU months for the rest of 2025. Tune staffing where you manage transload or drayage. Do not assume uniform slack across all gateways.
Tag tariff-sensitive SKUs For furniture and cabinets, confirm supplier timing relative to January rate increases. Update quotes and landed-cost models with the scheduled changes.
Watch blank sailings When schedules adjust, move inland appointments 24 to 48 hours later for the affected voyages to reduce rehandles and accessorials.
Prepare A and B routings for November Treat November 10 as a policy risk date. Avoid premature mode switches until effective rates are confirmed.
Tighten invoice controls If new tariff pass-through lines appear, ask for the governing notice and effective date, and save that note in the shipment record.

Quick answers

Why sub-2.0m TEU
Retailers frontloaded ahead of tariff changes. The Global Port Tracker outlook points to softer monthly totals through December.

Which items face new tariffs now
Upholstered wooden furniture at 25 percent and kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities at 25 percent. The schedule increases on January 1, 2026.

What happens November 10
The US-China tariff truce extended in August is set to expire. Another extension, a new decision, or a snap-back are all possible. Treat this as policy risk rather than a certainty.

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References

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