What July’s U.S. Aviation Restrictions on Mexico Signal

Introduction: Aviation Sanctions Loom as U.S.–Mexico Tensions Rise

In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced a series of enforcement actions against Mexico, citing violations of the U.S.–Mexico bilateral aviation agreement. These measures follow a years-long dispute over Mexico’s 2023 decision to relocate all cargo operations from Mexico City International Airport (MEX) to the newer Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA). While full sanctions have not yet been implemented, the U.S. has begun requiring advance schedule filings and is reviewing antitrust immunity for joint ventures involving Mexican carriers, including the Delta–Aeroméxico partnership.

What the U.S. Has (and Hasn’t) Done So Far

The DOT’s July 2025 actions stem from complaints that Mexico unilaterally altered operating conditions for international carriers without adequate consultation, including slot allocation changes and forced airport relocations. Citing these violations, U.S. authorities:

Required Mexican airlines to submit schedules for review before operating U.S. flights
Threatened to suspend approval of new flight requests or charters
Signaled a possible end to antitrust immunity for the Delta–Aeroméxico joint venture

Mexican officials, including President Claudia Sheinbaum, have defended the airport relocation as a necessary move to reduce congestion at MEX and modernize cargo infrastructure. They argue that the U.S. actions are “unjustified” and politically motivated. As of late July, no flights have been suspended, and Mexico maintains that it has not received a formal trade complaint.

This leaves the aviation dispute at a critical inflection point. The U.S. has initiated procedural restrictions but stopped short of full economic sanctions — a posture that could shift depending on Mexico’s response or additional disruptions at AIFA.

Airport Relocation Background: From MEX to AIFA

In 2023, the Mexican government issued a decree requiring all dedicated cargo operations to vacate Mexico City International Airport (MEX) and relocate to Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA). The deadline for this move was initially set for July 7, 2023, and later extended to September 1. The decision impacted 15 cargo airlines, including DHL, Cathay Pacific Cargo, Ethiopian Airlines, and AeroUnion, all of which completed relocation to AIFA by the deadline.

The relocation was justified by Mexican authorities as a response to saturation at MEX and the need to streamline operations. President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized that the decision was technical, not political. However, U.S. cargo carriers and logistics groups raised concerns that the move imposed operational costs, reduced access, and violated provisions of the bilateral air services agreement by unilaterally altering established traffic rights.

Despite these objections, the transition proceeded. Construction at AIFA included infrastructure upgrades to accommodate long-haul cargo operations, but critics argue that some promised improvements at MEX were delayed or unfulfilled. This ongoing disagreement about infrastructure adequacy and regulatory compliance contributed to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s enforcement notice in 2025.

Air Cargo Sector Exposure: Automotive, Pharma, and Just-in-Time Logistics

Automotive Supply Chain: Measurable Disruption

The automotive and pharmaceutical sectors are especially sensitive to disruptions in cross-border air freight. Automotive parts, electronics, and prototype components often move by air under just-in-time (JIT) supply models, particularly for vehicle launches and emergency replenishments. According to industry estimates, air cargo represents less than 1 percent of total automotive freight volume by weight but accounts for up to 20 percent of value due to the premium placed on time-critical handling.

Mexico’s Role in U.S. Automotive Supply Chains

Mexico has become the dominant supplier of auto parts to the U.S., and the data confirms its strategic role:

Metric	Value
Mexico’s share of U.S. auto parts imports (2024)	43%
Total auto parts exported to U.S. (Jan–Apr 2024)	$28.37 billion
Portion of all Mexico auto parts exports bound for U.S.	87%

Air Cargo in the Automotive Sector: Strategic, Not Optional

Despite making up a small share of total volume, air cargo plays a disproportionately large role in automotive logistics. It supports just-in-time (JIT) production, prevents costly plant shutdowns, and enables the shipment of high-value, time-sensitive parts.

Use Case	Details
Volume Share	Just 1% of total OEM freight by volume
Cost Share	~20× higher than volume share due to premium handling
Automotive Air Cargo Growth (2024)	50% YoY increase in volume
Primary Air Routes	Germany–China, U.S.–Mexico, China–U.S.

Air cargo is increasingly used not only for emergencies but also for planned operations. Major providers like DHL report that vehicle launch logistics account for up to 15% of their total automotive air freight business. In one case, manufacturers arranged weekly B747F wide-body flights for lithium-ion batteries, demonstrating how electric vehicle production intensifies air freight dependence.

Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices: Supply Chain Criticality

Pharmaceutical logistics also depend heavily on reliable air cargo lanes. Although pharma accounts for only 4 percent of global air cargo tonnage, it represents nearly 10 percent of special product volume due to stringent handling and temperature control requirements. Mexico’s dependency on imported Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) compounds this reliance. Only 4 percent of APIs are produced domestically, down from 80 percent in 1994. Most imports arrive from India and China and are distributed across the U.S.–Mexico manufacturing corridor.

API Dependency and Nearshoring Opportunity

Mexico’s pharmaceutical industry produces only ~4% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) domestically, down from 80% in 1994. This dependency on India and China (80%+ of global supply) has created vulnerability in North American pharma logistics. However, this is beginning to shift:

Post-COVID policy shifts and investment are reviving API production capacity in Mexico.
Nearshoring is being actively explored as a resilience strategy by both U.S. and Mexican stakeholders.

Air Cargo for Pharma: Regulatory and Cold Chain Complexities

Pharmaceutical products demand strict temperature and time control, making air freight essential. According to IATA and WHO:

4% of global air cargo tonnage is pharma-related; but accounts for ~10% of special product volumes.
WHO requires temperature logging every 10 minutes for pharma shipments.
CEIV Pharma certification (from IATA) is now a prerequisite for major shippers.

Requirement	Standard/Metric
Max. response time (Mexico–U.S.)	< 24 hours via DHL Medical Express
Cold chain cargo share	10% of air cargo special products
WHO monitoring requirement	Log every 10 minutes
Primary challenge	GDP and CEIV certification variance

Pharma logistics depend on compliant, rapid-response air cargo. Any delay caused by airport relocation or customs bottlenecks could compromise high-value shipments, with regulatory implications across the U.S.–Mexico corridor.

Services like DHL Medical Express offer sub-24-hour delivery from Mexico to major U.S. cities for clinical trials and temperature-sensitive shipments. These lanes are regulated under WHO guidelines and CEIV Pharma certification standards, which mandate temperature checks at 10-minute intervals. Any future air traffic restrictions could constrain these lanes and add risk to pharmaceutical delivery timelines.

Strategic Considerations for U.S.–Mexico Logistics

While the U.S. Department of Transportation has so far limited its enforcement to procedural steps, including schedule pre-approvals and joint venture scrutiny, these actions indicate a shift in bilateral aviation posture. If further operational disruptions occur at AIFA or if formal trade complaints are filed, enforcement measures may escalate through Q4 2025.

For logistics stakeholders operating across the U.S.–Mexico corridor, the second half of 2025 will require heightened monitoring of regulatory developments and airport operations. Just-in-time air cargo—particularly in the automotive and life sciences sectors—remains vulnerable to even minor shifts in air lane capacity or customs processing efficiency.

Forwarders, OEMs, and pharma distributors should review their routing resilience and consider:

Maintaining dual-lane routing strategies (AIFA plus alternative airports)
Verifying customs broker bandwidth at border crossings likely to absorb diverted volume
Auditing air cargo vendor compliance with CEIV and temperature-monitoring protocols
Requesting formal contingency plans from carriers flying into AIFA or impacted Mexican airports

With sanctions still limited but pressure mounting, logistics operators should treat the U.S.–Mexico aviation dispute as a developing risk event—one that could redefine access and reliability in North America’s most important nearshoring air corridor.

Strategic Summary: Logistics at the Heart of Industrial Continuity

Across the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, the data affirms a common trend: logistics is a strategic differentiator.

Air cargo is no longer just for emergencies; it’s embedded into standard supply chain operations, particularly in high-value, time-sensitive sectors.
U.S.–Mexico border delays are quantifiably disruptive to just-in-time manufacturing and pharma integrity, creating ripple effects through cost and compliance.
Nearshoring has capital behind it; investment patterns and production relocations reflect real structural change, not just policy discourse.

The role of real-time visibility, customs automation, and agile modal planning will only increase as businesses face:

New tariff regimes and trade compliance risk
Ongoing geopolitical disruptions
Stricter temperature, safety, and traceability standards

For logistics professionals, procurement leads, and strategy teams, aligning logistics capabilities with these data-backed shifts will be critical—not just for cost efficiency but for business continuity and market access.

Sources and References

Key Questions Answered: Real-Time Supply Chain Visibility in 2025

Why is Mexico critical to the U.S. auto parts supply chain?

Mexico supplied 43% of U.S. auto parts imports in 2024, the highest for any single country. Most of these parts are integrated into just-in-time production models that rely on seamless cross-border logistics.

How does air cargo support the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors?

Despite representing a small share of total volume, air cargo handles high-value and time-sensitive shipments. For example, temperature-controlled pharmaceuticals and emergency auto components rely on it to avoid production and quality losses.

What’s driving the nearshoring trend to Mexico?

Record-breaking FDI into Mexico—$21.4B in Q1 2025—shows rising investor confidence. U.S. tariff policies and demand for regional production have driven manufacturers like Volvo and Honda to shift production to Mexico for greater resilience.

Why is real-time shipment tracking becoming essential?

With evolving trade policies, port congestion, and temperature compliance standards (e.g., WHO mandates 10-minute pharma checks), real-time tracking is essential to maintain regulatory and operational continuity.

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