When 1 in 3 Boxes Is Late: What That Means for Q1’26 Planning

Global container schedule reliability has stopped swinging and settled into a plateau. That’s good news for planning—if you translate the numbers into buffers you can defend, service choices you can explain, and a short weekly routine that keeps promises realistic.

TL;DR

On-time arrivals sit around ~65%. August 2025 came in at 65.3% (▲12.7 pp YoY), with average delay for late vessels at 4.80 days. Performance has held in the 65–68% band since May. (See references.)
Turn stats into buffers: A defensible baseline is ~2 days extra for direct services; add +1–2 days for transshipment lanes and routes exposed to chokepoints (Suez/Panama).
Measure with the right lens: Use Sea-Intelligence GLP for market context, but judge promises with Drewry’s 6-week-locked metric, which mirrors shippers’ actual planning horizon.

1) The numbers (and why they matter)

After a steady climb through early 2025, reliability dipped in July (to 65.2%, the first M/M drop since January) and then nudged up to 65.3% in August. More importantly, it has been stable in the mid-60s for months. Average delay for late arrivals was ~4.8 days in August. That combination—stable on-time rate and a known average delay—is exactly what operators need to set guardrails on ETAs and inventory coverage.

2) Buffer math you can defend (and explain)

Think in expected delay across all boxes, not just the late ones:

On-time share ≈ 65%, so late share ≈ 35%.
Average delay for late vessels ≈ 4.8 days.
Expected delay ≈ 0.35 × 4.8 ≈ 1.68 days → round to a 2-day baseline buffer for direct services.

Adjust by lane:

+1–2 days for transshipment (TS) lanes; avoid <24-hour TS buffers, especially near holiday windows.
+1 day on lanes exposed to Suez uncertainty or Panama throughput ceilings.
Keep an extra +1 day floating when carriers are in a known blank-sailing period (e.g., around Lunar New Year) or when late blank additions are likely.

Why this framing helps: you can show buyers the simple math behind your safety days, and you can dial it up/down with evidence rather than guesswork.

3) Two ways to measure “on time” (use both, for different jobs)

Sea-Intelligence GLP (Global Liner Performance): the industry’s long-running benchmark. Great for month-over-month trends and carrier/trade comparisons.
Drewry’s 6-week-locked reliability: fixes the scheduled arrival six weeks before arrival (not 15 days), matching how BCOs plan. Expect stricter scores, but it’s a better mirror of the promises you actually make at booking.

Practical use: quote GLP when you explain market context; set internal customer-promise rules using the 6-week-locked view.

4) Where the plateau bites (and how to design around it)

One in three boxes will be late. Build that into ETA confidence bands (e.g., “±2 days” on directs; wider on TS lanes).
Prefer fewer handovers: direct calls or single-hub routings beat complex TS chains when reliability is flat.
Stagger critical POs: split across two services to avoid single-vessel exposure in periods with more blank sailings.
Document the assumptions: save the published schedule used for booking (the “locked” view) alongside your ETA so post-fact reviews are objective.

5) Tendering & SLAs for Q1’26

Mini-bids: when reliability is flat, prioritize services with solid connection buffers and historical on-time performance in your trade. Avoid “knife-edge” connections (<24h) in SLAs.
SLA wording: promise delivery windows (e.g., ETA ±2–3 days by lane) rather than single-point ETAs; tie windows to the metric you use (e.g., “schedule locked ≥6 weeks prior”).
Inventory math: safety stock should reflect the 2-day baseline plus your lane uplift (TS/chokepoint exposure). Make that policy explicit so sales and procurement align with ops.

6) Five-minute weekly check (keeps buffers honest)

GLP update: note direction of travel (even small M/M moves matter when you’re near cut-offs).
Carrier advisories: scan for blank sailings and port omissions added after initial plans.
Chokepoints: keep an eye on Red Sea/Suez developments and Panama Canal daily transit guidance (targets near ~33/day in 2026 keep recovery slack thin).

Implementation notes (tools you likely already have)

Use live tracking by B/L or container and share a no-login status link internally so sales/CS see the same ETA you do.
Log the schedule you booked against (the 6-week “locked” view) with the shipment record; it’s your reference when exceptions happen.
Capture milestones (ETD/ATD/TS planned & actual/ATA/availability) to spot systematic weak points and dispute fees if needed.

Put at-risk shipments on a shareable tracking link to cut “where’s my box?” messages while your buffer policy does its job—try it in TRADLINX.

References

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