When Do Maersk and CMA CGM Return to the Suez Canal

Headlines say the Red Sea is back. Carrier behavior says the return will be phased. This post distills the latest public moves by CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, and turns them into practical guidance for logistics teams deciding when to pilot Suez again.

Executive summary

What did not change: War-risk insurance remains elevated. Crew safety perception and schedule complexity still bite. Conservative carriers have not committed to full network shifts.
What changed: October traffic reached a new post-crisis high and the Suez Canal Authority extended targeted rebates. Several large ships transited safely.
Operational stance: Consider controlled Suez pilots on time-sensitive or high-margin lanes while preserving Cape contingencies.
Thesis: We are in a trial stage, not a broad reopening. Limited deployments are testing economics and risk controls.

1) CMA CGM as a test case

The transit of the CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN in early November was a visible scale test. It is the largest boxship to pass the canal in roughly two years and it moved within a northbound convoy. That combination signals confidence in escorting and coordination, not a return to business as usual. SCA has also noted another CMA CGM ultra-large vessel routing via Suez. Read this as structured experimentation with the biggest hardware where time savings are most valuable.

Economically, two levers help these trials pencil out: a time advantage versus the Cape and a targeted SCA rebate for very large containerships. That mix can overcome part of the insurance drag on specific voyages. It is not a universal green light for entire fleets.

2) Maersk’s timeline signals

Maersk has been the caution barometer all year. In May the company said disruption would persist through 2025 despite ceasefire headlines. Network planning with Hapag-Lloyd has centered on a Cape-based Gemini structure designed for high reliability. Recent remarks frame Suez as something to monitor rather than to re-enter immediately. The practical read: expect Maersk to follow hard evidence of sustained stability and softer insurance, not to lead on experiments.

3) MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen, COSCO – a spectrum of caution

MSC: Publicly states the Cape is not preferred and that a return depends on stability. Participates in SCA discussions and expresses optimism, but timing is deliberately vague.
Hapag-Lloyd: Consistent line that vessels will return only when it is deemed safe. Monitoring, not committing trial capacity.
Evergreen: Messaging ties any return to complete and durable stability. No public trial voyages confirmed.
COSCO: Links Suez return to broader rate and supply-demand normalization, not only to security conditions.

The takeaway is divergence at the margin. Some carriers will test carefully where economics are most compelling. The more conservative group wants a longer proof window and better insurance terms before shifting schedules.

4) The four real friction points

Insurance: Additional war-risk premiums around the Red Sea have sat near the 0.5 percent range this year, with spikes toward 0.7–1.0 percent after severe incidents. That can translate into six or seven figures per large voyage. Until pricing settles lower, finance teams will green-light only selective Suez rotations.
Crew risk and perception: High-profile attacks and casualties in mid-2025 hardened attitudes. Crewing premiums and liability concerns add a non-trivial hurdle that headlines cannot erase quickly.
Schedule reliability: Industry on-time performance has plateaued in the mid-60s percent. Running mixed Suez and Cape networks during transition creates equipment and timing imbalances that carriers prefer to avoid until confidence improves.
Capacity dynamics: The global fleet is larger than ever and the idle share is very low. ULCS economics favor the shorter Suez leg, while some smaller tonnage still absorbs capacity on the longer Cape loop. Carriers will use Suez where it improves overall rotations, not across the board.

5) What the traffic data actually shows

October saw 229 vessel transits through Suez, the strongest monthly count since the crisis began. July through October transits and tonnage rose year over year, which confirms real movement back to the canal. SCA has leaned in with targeted rebates for large containerships to keep that momentum. Those are encouraging data points, but they describe a measured climb rather than a flip of a switch.

6) Timeline and realistic expectations

Now: Structured trials on select strings and ship sizes where time savings plus rebates beat risk and insurance drag.
Near term: More tests if the incident rate stays quiet and insurers soften pricing. Expect additional carrier meetings with SCA and incremental schedule tweaks.
Broader rebalancing: Only after a sustained security window and materially lower premiums. Network changes of that size require multi-month planning and buffer capacity.

7) Decision framework for cargo owners and LSPs

Use the matrix below to decide whether to pilot Suez on a lane-by-lane basis.

Factor	Current read	How to act
Route cost	SCA incentives plus shorter leg can offset some insurance	Run lane-level math. Favor Suez where gross margin is strong and utilization is high.
Transit time	Suez saves roughly 7–10 days vs Cape on Asia–Europe	Prioritize fast lanes where cycle time yields one extra rotation per year.
Insurance	Elevated and volatile around Red Sea	Seek bundled quotes with multi-transit commitments. Build sensitivity ranges into TCO.
Schedule reliability	Mid-60s percent industry-wide	Do not assume Suez alone fixes reliability. Protect with berth windows and gate buffers.
Crew and compliance	Higher scrutiny and crewing constraints	Document risk controls. Confirm carrier security protocols and contingency routing.
Carrier commitment	Trials and conditional language, not full redeployments	Confirm specific sailings and equipment plans before you promise downstream ETAs.

8) Practical playbook

Split risk: Start with a defined share of volumes on Suez while keeping a Cape baseline. Review KPIs after two full cycles.
Tighten contracts: Add clauses for insurance surcharges, dynamic routing, and cancellation thresholds linked to security advisories.
Protect the yard: Pre-book chassis and stagger gate-outs at European discharge ports during the transition window.
Watch the inflection: A credible acceleration signal is a broad drop in Red Sea war-risk premiums and a quiet incident tape for 60–90 days.

Bottom line

Suez is technically open, but the industry is still proving the economics and the safety case. Treat it like an option you exercise deliberately, not a default you rush back to. Pilots now, bigger shifts only when insurance and incident data justify the risk.

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References

Reuters. “Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues rise as Red Sea tensions ease, 229 ships in October.” Nov 4, 2025. reuters.com
Daily News Egypt. “Suez Canal sees largest container ship in two years.” Nov 8, 2025. dailynewsegypt.com
Egypt Today. “Return of giant container ships as CMA CGM reroutes.” Nov 2025. egypttoday.com
Suez Canal Authority. Circular No. 3/2025 and renewals. May–Jul 2025. suezcanal.gov.eg and renewal note Tolls Table
Ahram Online. “Suez Canal extends 15 percent discount for large container ships till Dec 31, 2025.” Jul 31, 2025. english.ahram.org.eg
Sea-Intelligence. “Global schedule reliability plateaus around the 65 percent mark.” Oct 28, 2025. sea-intelligence.com
Reuters. “Maersk expects Red Sea disruption to continue through 2025.” May 8, 2025. reuters.com
Reuters. “Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd see no immediate return to Red Sea.” Jan 16, 2025. reuters.com
EU Council. “Mandate of Operation ASPIDES prolonged until 28 Feb 2026.” Feb 14, 2025. consilium.europa.eu
Reuters. “Red Sea insurance soars after deadly Houthi ship attacks.” Jul 10, 2025. reuters.com
S&P Global Commodity Insights. “AWRP near 0.5 percent for seven days in Red Sea.” Mar 12, 2025. spglobal.com
AXSMarine Blog. “Idle fleet remains stable at 0.9 percent of 32.7m TEU.” Oct 2025. axsmarine.com
Reuters. “Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Gemini Cooperation scale if disruption continues.” Sep 10, 2024. reuters.com

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