Major carriers stayed profitable in Q2 2025, yet combined EBIT fell to USD 2.73 billion from USD 5.89 billion in Q1, according to Sea-Intelligence. Schedule reliability slipped in July to 65.2 percent with average late-arrival delay at 4.68 days. Announced Golden Week blank sailings on the Transpacific are below historical levels, which points to likely last-minute capacity cuts. This post translates those facts into RFQ timing, structure, and allocation moves BCOs can use in Q4.
What Changed
- Profitability narrowed in Q2: Sea-Intelligence reports a combined carrier EBIT of USD 2.73 billion in Q2, down from USD 5.89 billion in Q1. All major lines reported positive EBIT per TEU, ranging from USD 12 to USD 249 among carriers with available data.
- Service performance softened in July: Global schedule reliability fell to 65.2 percent, the first month-over-month decline since January, and average delay for late arrivals increased to 4.68 days.
- Blank sailings risk into Golden Week: Announced Transpacific capacity reductions for Golden Week are below historical benchmarks, which increases the probability of last-minute blanks and rollover risk.
What This Means For Q4 RFQs
- Time the window: Avoid long fixity until Golden Week blank programs are fully published. Use a shorter RFQ validity, then add a recheck gate once late blanks are visible.
- Blend price mechanics: Pair a fixed base with an index-linked component on high-volatility lanes. This can protect you if spot falls further, while capping upside if late blanks tighten supply.
- Allocate for resilience: Diversify awards across alliances and service strings. Tilt awards toward strings with consistent reliability rather than headline-low rates only.
- Match MQC to operational risk: Keep take-or-pay exposure modest until blank sailing visibility improves. Build escape language for carrier-caused rollings or service withdrawals.
Rate-Watch Table You Can Use Weekly
Populate with your own numbers. The trigger levels are examples that tie decisions to public signals rather than anecdotes.
| Signal | Trigger | Action in RFQ |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule reliability | < 65 percent for two consecutive months | Shorten rate validity to 30 days, raise rollover penalties in contracts |
| Announced Golden Week blanks | Transpacific capacity cuts remain below historical one week before sailings | Defer long awards, increase spot allocation buffer by 10 to 15 percent |
| Carrier EBIT trend | Combined EBIT falls quarter over quarter with reliability also falling | Favor index-linked clauses and multi-string awards over single-winner awards |
Guidance Box: Take-or-Pay And MQC Risks
- Cap under-utilization penalties: Tie any shortfall fee to measured carrier service performance. If the carrier rolls or blanks, the related volume is exempt from penalty.
- Add a service-change re-opener: If a string is withdrawn or consolidated, allow a no-penalty re-bid for affected lanes.
- Use volume bands: Quote awards in bands with price steps. This reduces the chance of over-commitment when blanks reduce lift.
- Document rollover priority: Require priority loading language on core lanes or a defined credit if a rollover occurs.
Procurement Playbook For The Next 30 Days
- Step 1: Publish RFQ assumptions that reference schedule reliability and published blank programs. Keep them date stamped.
- Step 2: Run dual-award scenarios that split volume by service string and alliance. Stress test with an extra 10 percent blank rate.
- Step 3: Use shorter validity and a mid-quarter recheck. Convert a portion of awards to index-linked where volatility is highest.
- Step 4: Set MQC guardrails. Add escape clauses for carrier-caused rollings and publish the documentation process for invoking them.
Use TRADLINX Ocean Visibility to benchmark on-time performance by service string, monitor blank sailings as they are announced, and track B L milestones. Feed those signals into your RFQ scoring so awards reflect live service quality, not rate sheets alone.
- One quarter is not a trend. Do not assume Q4 contract rates must fall because Q2 EBIT fell. Capacity discipline through blanks can offset softer demand.
- Use the sources below for dated facts. Keep your social copy neutral on outcomes and avoid implying that legal or policy shifts guarantee pricing moves.
Leave a Reply