A Third Weekly WCI Climb to $2,712: What's Lifting Container Rates Through Q2

Drewry’s World Container Index posted its third consecutive weekly increase this week, climbing 6% to $2,712 per 40-foot container. The climb landed in the same week Rotterdam’s B30-VLSFO bunker price dropped around $59 per metric ton, primarily driven by a drop in conventional VLSFO prices. Bunker buyers got a week of relief.

By late in the same week, the chokepoint side of the Iran war story had also moved toward easing. The United States and Iran neared a 60-day ceasefire extension with a framework to demine and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the first LNG tanker bound for India since the war began transited Hormuz. In a market where container rates were widely understood to carry a fuel-cost premium tied to the war, both signals should have been cooling the WCI. The container market hasn’t followed.

Where the lift is actually coming from

The WCI climb is being driven from a different place than the chokepoint headlines. Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rates jumped 15% this week to $2,773 per 40-foot container. Shanghai–Genoa rose 10% to $4,082. Carriers are pushing Freight All Kinds (FAK) levels higher into peak-season demand, and CMA CGM has filed new FAK levels effective 1 June — around $4,700 per 40-foot container on Asia–Europe and $5,500–$5,700 on Asia–Mediterranean. Drewry expects further rate rises in the coming weeks.

Capacity is part of what’s making the FAK stick. Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight shows only three blank sailings announced on Asia–Europe for next week, meaning carriers are deploying tonnage through the demand wave rather than holding it back. That pattern matches early peak season, not chokepoint pricing.

Transpacific is moving differently

The Transpacific weekly moves were narrower. Shanghai–New York rose 2% to $4,317 per 40-foot container. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 1% to $3,385. The forward picture is firmer than the weekly print suggests. Seven blank sailings are scheduled on the Transpacific for next week, and Ocean Network Express has announced a $2,000 per 40-foot container Peak Season Surcharge on Transpacific eastbound effective 1 June. That’s a tighter capacity setup with a named surcharge landing in under two weeks — the lane to recheck on June and early-July bookings.

What to recheck before the next booking cycle

Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean rate exposure. If your team has non-FAK contracts on these lanes, the 1 June CMA CGM filing is the threshold to benchmark against. When a Tier-1 carrier sets a new FAK at a peak-season inflection point, other carriers typically follow within a 7–14 day window. The Shanghai–Genoa figure at $4,082 is already running well below the new Asia–Mediterranean FAK floor — closing that gap is the direction of travel for the rest of Q2.

Transpacific eastbound bookings landing in June. The ONE $2,000 PSS hits 1 June. Whether other carriers match it, and how the seven blank sailings translate to actual roll behavior, is the next 10 days’ visibility test for any Transpacific cargo that needs to move on a tight ETD. PSS exposure is the most concrete line item to chase down with each carrier representative this week.

The bunker and BAF spread. Bunker prices fell sharply this week, but Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) revisions on most carrier contracts lag spot bunker moves by several weeks. The relief is coming through, but it likely won’t offset the FAK lifts before invoices on June and early-July bookings cut. Build the lag into your Q2 cost expectations rather than assuming the energy-side easing flows through immediately.

If your team is reconciling FAK filings, PSS notices, and BAF adjustments across multiple carriers manually each week, a 30-minute walkthrough of how ops teams set up automated surcharge monitoring across 100+ carriers might be worth a calendar slot — book a time here.

The structural read

When a rate climb holds while its presumed driver eases, the market is signaling that the underlying cause isn’t what the headlines assume. The Iran war hit container rates through two channels: a fuel-cost premium that pushed bunker prices up, and demand pull-forward as shippers moved cargo earlier into peak season. The bunker premium is now unwinding as Hormuz traffic resumes and conventional fuel prices follow. The demand effect is more persistent, and it’s what’s keeping the WCI on its upward run. For the rest of Q2, the operational line to watch is FAK and PSS filings from major carriers; bunker and BAF adjustments will trail by several weeks.

Sources: Drewry World Container Index weekly update (21 May 2026); ENGINE biofuel bunker snapshot (22 May 2026); Washington Post and Axios reporting on US–Iran ceasefire framework (23–24 May 2026); Bloomberg via gCaptain on Hormuz LNG tanker transit (23 May 2026). Spot rates and FAK levels move continuously; figures cited are weekly assessments as of the dates noted and may shift before publication.

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