From Biden’s Resilience Agenda to Trump’s Protectionism: The Future of U.S. Trade

The transition from President Biden to President-elect Trump signals a shift in U.S. trade and supply chain policy. While Biden focused on resilience and collaboration to address supply chain vulnerabilities, Trump’s approach is expected to prioritize tariffs and reshoring.

For logistics service providers (LSPs), these policy changes bring both challenges and opportunities. From fluctuating freight rates to shifting trade patterns, understanding the implications is critical to staying competitive in a rapidly evolving market. In this article, we unpack what has been done, what might change, and how these shifts could impact your business.

Biden Administration: Strengthening Supply Chains

The Biden administration made supply chain resilience a cornerstone of its economic strategy. Below are the key initiatives that impacted LSPs:

1. Freight Logistics Optimization Works (FLOW)

What It Did: FLOW introduced a public-private data-sharing platform to improve visibility across supply chains, reducing bottlenecks and improving freight movement efficiency.
Impact on LSPs: FLOW helped reduce port congestion and improved lead times for shipments, enabling smoother operations for logistics providers.

2. Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL)

What It Did: Allocated $17 billion for port infrastructure and $5 billion to ease trucking bottlenecks, modernizing critical logistics infrastructure.
Impact on LSPs: Enhanced infrastructure reduced delays in freight movement, lowering costs and improving reliability for LSPs.

3. Executive Order 14017 on America’s Supply Chains

What It Did: Mandated reviews of critical supply chains (e.g., semiconductors, pharmaceuticals) and invested over $50 billion through the CHIPS Act to boost domestic manufacturing.
Impact on LSPs: Reduced reliance on foreign suppliers stabilized supply chains, benefiting logistics operations tied to high-tech and pharmaceutical industries.

4. Ocean Shipping Reform Act

What It Did: Addressed unfair practices in ocean shipping, regulated fees by carriers, and improved data transparency at ports.
Impact on LSPs: Lowered shipping costs and reduced operational complexities for ocean freight providers.

5. White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience

What It Did: Coordinated over 30 actions to address vulnerabilities in key sectors like agriculture and energy while promoting domestic production.
Impact on LSPs: Strengthened long-term supply chain stability, reducing risks for logistics providers reliant on critical goods.

6. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)

What It Did: Partnered with 14 countries to secure critical resources like minerals and improve logistics infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region.
Impact on LSPs: Diversified sourcing options reduced geopolitical risks while investments in regional infrastructure improved freight efficiency.

The Biden administration made supply chain resilience a cornerstone of its economic strategy

Trump Administration: What to Expect

The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on trade protectionism, reshoring, and deregulation. For logistics service providers (LSPs), these policies will likely introduce new challenges and opportunities.

1. Tariff Increases

Expected Changes:
- 10-20% tariffs on all imports.
- Up to 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Impact on LSPs:
- Higher tariffs may reduce import volumes, affecting demand for international shipping services.
- Companies may accelerate nearshoring strategies, creating new demand for domestic logistics services, including trucking, warehousing, and multimodal transport.
- Freight Rate Volatility: Similar to the U.S.-China trade war (2018-2020), ocean freight rates could surge by 10-15% as companies scramble to reconfigure supply chains.

2. Reshoring and “Buy American” Policies

Expected Changes:
- Expanded “Buy American” requirements for government contracts.
- Incentives for companies to reshore manufacturing.

Impact on LSPs:
- Increased domestic production will drive demand for regional freight services and last-mile delivery solutions.
- Domestic Warehousing Demand: Reshoring could increase warehousing needs by 15-20%, particularly near industrial hubs in the Midwest and South.
- Reshoring may require supply chain realignment, creating opportunities for consulting and adaptive planning services.

3. Deregulation

Expected Changes:
- Rollback of environmental regulations, including emissions standards.
Impact on LSPs:
- Lower compliance costs for trucking fleets, potentially reducing operational expenses in the short term.
- However, slower progress toward sustainable logistics solutions may conflict with client goals tied to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) priorities.

4. Revisions to USMCA

Expected Changes:
- Potential renegotiation of trade terms with Mexico and Canada, focusing on labor standards and tariff adjustments.
Impact on LSPs:
- Cross-border freight flows may face disruptions or increased costs due to revised trade agreements
- Companies may prioritize “friend-shoring” within USMCA countries to mitigate risks, reshaping traditional trade lanes.

5. Reduced Focus on Semiconductor Investments

Expected Changes:
- Less support for CHIPS Act funding.
- Potential delays in U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing expansion.
Impact on LSPs:
- Potential disruptions in tech-related supply chains could indirectly affect logistics providers serving these industries.
- Reduced investments could slow momentum for nearshoring in high-tech sectors.

US President-elect Donald J. Trump with International Longshoremen’s Association leaders Harold J. Daggett and Dennis A. Daggett © ILA

Comparing the Two Administrations

Policy Area	Biden Administration	Trump Administration
Tariffs	Targeted tariffs (e.g., EV incentives).	Broad-based tariff increases globally.
Infrastructure Investment	$1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.	Likely focus on traditional projects only.
Supply Chain Resilience	FLOW program; CHIPS Act funding; IPEF.	Focus on reshoring; reduced semiconductor funding.
Environmental Policies	Clean energy incentives; emissions standards.	Deregulation of emissions standards.

Strategic Recommendations for LSPs: Preparing for Shifting Trade Policies

As U.S. trade policies evolve, logistics service providers (LSPs) must adopt strategies that are both actionable and aligned with current trends. Here’s how to prepare effectively:

1. Adapt to Shifting Trade Policies

Monitor Tariff and Trade Changes: Regularly track updates on tariffs and trade agreements. For instance, prepare for potential tariffs of up to 20% on imports by reassessing contracts and helping clients optimize sourcing.
Align with Reshoring Trends: Support companies moving production closer to home by offering warehousing or transport solutions tailored to regional operations.

2. Strengthen Domestic Capabilities

Expand Regional Warehousing: With reshoring gaining momentum, prioritize warehousing capacity in key regions to reduce delivery times and costs.
Optimize Last-Mile Delivery: Invest in last-mile logistics near manufacturing hubs to meet rising demand for domestic distribution.
Enhance Intermodal Transport: Provide integrated solutions combining trucking, rail, and ocean freight to streamline reshored supply chains.

3. Invest in Technology for Visibility and Compliance

Ocean Visibility Platforms: Use digital tools to monitor shipments across global routes and provide clients with real-time updates. These tools are critical in mitigating disruptions.
Predictive Analytics: Leverage AI to forecast potential risks, such as delays caused by new tariffs or port congestion. Use insights to plan ahead and offer proactive solutions to clients.
Blockchain for Traceability: Adopt blockchain to ensure full visibility across the supply chain, particularly for compliance with tracing laws like the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.

4. Diversify Trade Routes

Shift to “Friend-Shoring”: Assist clients in sourcing from allies within frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). This reduces dependence on volatile regions while maintaining supply chain stability.
Optimize Shipping Networks: Evaluate new trade lanes that reflect emerging policies, such as tariffs on Chinese goods or restrictions on certain imports.

5. Stay Agile Amid Regulatory Shifts

Develop Contingency Plans: Prepare for sudden trade policy changes by diversifying supplier networks and securing alternative routes.
Monitor Key Regulations: Stay ahead of potential changes in customs requirements, import/export restrictions, and trade agreements. Proactively adjust documentation and operational processes.

TRADLINX Ocean Visibility can provide the real-time tracking and analytics needed to navigate disruptions and optimize operations.

Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Policy Pivot

The Biden administration laid the groundwork for more resilient supply chains through investments in infrastructure, data transparency, and domestic production. However, the incoming Trump administration’s focus on tariffs, reshoring, and deregulation will likely shift priorities toward protectionism and domestic growth.

For LSPs, these changes demand agility and innovation. Adapting to new trade policies while leveraging reshoring opportunities will be key to thriving in this evolving market. Tools like TRADLINX Ocean Visibility can provide the real-time tracking and analytics needed to navigate disruptions and optimize operations. Start your free trial today and navigate the changes with ease.

From Biden’s Resilience Agenda to Trump’s Protectionism: The Future of U.S. Trade

Biden Administration: Strengthening Supply Chains