Hormuz After the Ceasefire: Carrier-by-Carrier Status and the Three Barriers That Haven't Moved

On April 8, the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Four days later, the strait remains effectively closed. Fewer than 10 vessels per day are transiting — down from a pre-war baseline of over 100. No major container carrier has resumed Gulf services. War risk insurance is still unavailable at commercial rates. And Iran is charging tolls in cryptocurrency through a permission-based transit system that no Western-linked vessel has used.

If you’re wondering whether to rebook cargo through the Gulf or stick with the workaround network, the answer right now is: nothing has changed operationally. Here’s the current state, carrier by carrier, and what to watch before making any routing decisions.

The Numbers Say “Closed”

Transit volumes are 5–10% of normal. On the day the ceasefire was announced, Kpler recorded five vessels crossing the strait. The next day, seven. By April 10, the daily average had not exceeded 10 — compared with 100–135 per day before February 28. S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that transiting vessels are still using the altered route west of Larak Island, under Iranian naval oversight, rather than standard commercial shipping lanes.

The vessels transiting are not container ships. CBS News reported that only three of the ships passing through since the ceasefire were oil or chemical tankers — all three under U.S. sanctions for previously carrying Iranian crude. The rest were dry bulk carriers. No major Western-operated container vessel has attempted the strait since the ceasefire announcement.

ADNOC’s CEO was blunt. Sultan Al Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, posted on April 9: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled. Iran has made clear that passage is subject to permission, conditions, and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation.”

Kpler’s maximum throughput estimate: even if the ceasefire holds, safe transit capacity is expected to remain at 10–15 passages per day at best. That is roughly one-tenth of pre-war volume.

Carrier by Carrier: Nobody Is Going Back

Maersk is not transiting. Its April 8 customer advisory stated the ceasefire “does not yet provide full maritime certainty.” Maersk has 14 vessels and approximately 70,000 TEU marooned inside the Gulf. Gulf and Indian Subcontinent services (FM1, ME11) remain suspended. Bookings are open only to Jeddah, King Abdullah Port, Jordan, Salalah, Lebanon, and Israel. All upper Gulf destinations — UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia east coast — remain closed. Maersk is seeking U.S. regulatory approval for an Emergency Bunker Surcharge of $200/TEU headhaul and $100/TEU backhaul.

Hapag-Lloyd is not transiting. Six container ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf. Communications chief Nils Haupt told CNBC: “Returning to normal for our industry is weeks away.” CEO Rolf Habben Jansen estimated at least 6–8 weeks to fully resume normal network operations — and that assumes the ceasefire holds. Bookings remain suspended to the same upper Gulf destinations. War Risk Surcharge: $1,500/TEU for dry containers, $3,500 for reefers.

MSC declared “End of Voyage” for all Gulf-bound shipments on March 3 and has not reversed that decision. Fifteen ships carrying approximately 109,000 TEU remain inside the Gulf, including the 19,200-TEU MSC Clara. MSC is invoking maritime law to offload cargo at safe ports and charging an $800/container surcharge for diverted cargo. Services are limited to Khor Fakkan, Jeddah, King Abdullah Port, and Red Sea ports.

CMA CGM is the only major carrier that has moved vessels. Before the ceasefire, CMA CGM secured transit for the CMA CGM Kribi through direct coordination with Iranian authorities — the first Western-operated container ship to pass through since the war began. Post-ceasefire, three additional CMA CGM vessels began repositioning. But the carrier has still “largely moved its fleet away from Gulf calls” and is routing cargo through multimodal solutions via Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sohar.

ONE has at least one vessel (ONE Majesty) trapped inside the Gulf, planned for Mundra. COSCO has two 18,980-TEU vessels plus three feeders west of the strait. China-flagged vessels may have a marginally better negotiating position with Iran, but COSCO suspended all new Middle East bookings at the start of the war. ZIM suspended Middle East bookings with no post-ceasefire resumption announced.

Three Barriers That Haven’t Moved

1. Insurance is the real gate. All 12 International Group P&I Clubs cancelled war risk cover effective March 5. War risk premiums peaked at 2.5% of hull value — and reached 7.5–10% for U.S.-linked vessels. For a $138 million VLCC with American associations, that is $10–14 million per transit. The U.S. launched a $40 billion reinsurance backstop on April 3, backed by Chubb, AIG, Berkshire Hathaway, and others — but it covers loss, not the fundamental question of whether underwriters will write 7-day transit policies at rates that make commercial sense. Insurance Business Magazine published on April 10: “A ceasefire won’t reopen the insurance market — not yet.”

2. Iran’s toll system is not a negotiation — it’s operational. Iran’s parliament passed a “Strait of Hormuz Management Plan” on March 30–31. The toll is approximately $1 per barrel of crude (around $2 million for a fully loaded VLCC). Payments are accepted in Chinese yuan via Kunlun Bank/CIPS or in Bitcoin and USDT stablecoins. Operators must email IRGC-linked intermediaries with vessel ownership details, flag, cargo manifests, crew lists, and AIS data. After payment, the vessel receives a VHF passcode and an IRGC Navy escort through the northern corridor around Larak Island. The U.S. has demanded the strait open “without limitation, including tolls.” Any payment to Iran for transit exposes shipping companies to significant U.S. sanctions risk.

3. The ceasefire itself is fragile. Iran halted oil tanker traffic on April 9, citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon as a ceasefire violation. The Iranian navy released a map indicating it may have mined the strait, outlining designated safe lanes. GPS jamming clusters have been detected across the Gulf of Oman. Multiple vessels are transiting with AIS disabled. On April 11, Trump said American forces had started “clearing” the strait — language that does not suggest a stable diplomatic framework.

The Workaround Network Is Still Your Network

Salalah is functioning as the primary transshipment hub for Gulf-bound cargo. It sits outside both the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threat zones. A drone attack on March 28 damaged a terminal crane, but operations resumed by March 31. Maersk is not accepting Flex Hub/Sales on Water bookings due to capacity constraints — plan firm routings.

Khor Fakkan is not accepting export containers (empty or laden) to manage terminal capacity. Wait times run 7–10 days. It connects to Jebel Ali and Dubai by road and rail.

The Dubai Customs Green Corridor continues expanding. Notice 03/2026 established cargo flow from Khor Fakkan and Fujairah overland to Dubai. Notice 04/2026 (March 14) opened a bidirectional corridor between Dubai and Oman via the Hatta/Al Wajajah border. Notice 06/2026 (April 4) extended the corridor to allow Dubai cargo to reach global destinations through Oman’s ports and airports. DP World Logistics handles sea cargo; dnata handles air.

Overland alternatives are scaling. A Sharjah–Dammam trade bridge launched March 22 via Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Gulftainer. Maersk is offering multimodal solutions routing through Jeddah for upper Gulf origins and through Sohar/Salalah/Jeddah for UAE cargo via landbridge.

What About Suez?

The Red Sea is not a viable alternative right now either. Suez Canal traffic remains 60% below 2023 levels. Houthis have not attacked commercial shipping since September 2025, but they launched a missile toward Israel in late March 2026 — the first since the Iran war began — signaling they could resume at any time. CMA CGM had started returning services to Suez before February 28; all carriers reversed those plans when the Iran war started. A large-scale return to Suez in 2026 is now considered unlikely by most analysts.

When Will It Actually Normalize?

The honest answer: months, not weeks. Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO estimates 6–8 weeks to restore normal schedules, assuming a durable ceasefire. eToro analyst Lale Akoner told CNN it could take six months to return traffic to pre-war levels. The Red Sea Houthi ceasefire was agreed in January 2025 and traffic has still not returned. That is the reference case.

The structural impediments go beyond politics. Even if Iran fully opens the strait tomorrow, carriers need to reposition vessels, rebook services, send empty containers back into the Gulf, and clear the hundreds of thousands of containers stranded at Indian, Omani, and Pakistani ports. Hapag-Lloyd’s Haupt put it plainly: the issue is not solved until all the ships have left the strait, because there are hundreds of thousands of containers at ports in India, Oman, and Pakistan that need to be transported into the Persian Gulf. That process takes weeks to months.

What to Do This Week

Do not rebook Gulf-routed cargo on the assumption that the ceasefire equals reopening. No carrier has resumed upper Gulf services. No insurer is writing transit policies at pre-war rates. No transit protocol exists that Western-linked vessels can use without sanctions exposure.

Monitor three things: whether any top-five carrier announces a resumption of Gulf calls (none have); whether Lloyd’s Joint War Committee revises the Persian Gulf war risk area designation (it hasn’t); and whether the ceasefire survives through April 22 (when the two-week window closes). Until at least two of those three change, the workaround network — Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Green Corridor, overland bridges — remains the operational reality.

Current Rate Snapshot

Drewry World Container Index (April 9): $2,309/FEU, up 1% week-on-week. Shanghai–Rotterdam at $2,308/FEU. Shanghai–Los Angeles at $2,910/FEU (+9%). Rotterdam–New York surged 25% to $1,968/FEU. The Freightos Baltic Index shows Asia–U.S. West Coast rates at $2,184/FEU, up approximately 40% since the war started. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index jumped 28% in the first week of April alone, reflecting regional congestion from rerouted cargo.

Rates have not spiked as dramatically as tanker rates because most container services were already rerouted or suspended before the ceasefire. The cost pressure is showing up through surcharges — Emergency Contingency Surcharges, War Risk Surcharges, and Emergency Bunker Surcharges — rather than base rate increases.