Late-October Asia-Europe Sailings Face Growing Cancellation Risk

Carriers have scheduled 1.50 million TEU of capacity on Asia-North Europe for the four weeks around China’s Golden Week, which runs from October 1 to 7. That is 27% more than the same window in 2025 and 60% above the 2017–2019 average, according to Sea-Intelligence.

For shippers with Asia-Europe cargo booked into mid- or late October, that surplus is the problem. Some of the apparent capacity increase comes from delayed vessels now scheduled to depart in the same weeks as regular sailings. Once those delayed vessels clear and Golden Week factory closures reduce export volumes, the trade could move quickly from unusually crowded schedules into excess capacity.

That creates a familiar risk: carriers remove sailings to bring supply back in line with demand. For shippers, a confirmed late-October booking should therefore still be treated as something to monitor rather than a fixed departure.

How Delays Turned Into a Capacity Bulge

Scheduled capacity during Golden Week itself is 63% above last year, with the following week 39% higher. Congestion and vessel delays across Asia have caused ships to bunch together, creating 12 instances where two vessels on the same service are scheduled to sail in the same week.

The imbalance is even larger on Asia-Mediterranean, where scheduled capacity reaches 1.14 million TEU over the same four-week period.

Golden Week period (4 weeks)	Asia-North Europe	Asia-Mediterranean
Scheduled capacity	1.50 million TEU	1.14 million TEU
Change vs same period 2025	+27%	+49%
Change vs 2017–2019 average	+60%	+141%

Source: Sea-Intelligence, September 23, 2026. Asia-Mediterranean figures as reported by TrasportoEuropa, October 1, 2026.

Carriers had already announced some Golden Week capacity cuts before this bulge became visible. MSC blanked three Asia-North Europe voyages across weeks 40 and 41, while Maersk blanked three Asia-Europe sailings over the same period.

Carrier	Service	Voyage	Week	First load port / ETD
MSC	SWAN	FW640W	40	Not stated in advisory
MSC	BRITANNIA	QB640W	40	Not stated in advisory
MSC	LION	GL641W	41	Not stated in advisory
Maersk	AE15	640W	40	Qingdao, Sep 28
Maersk	AE12	641W	41	Ningbo, Oct 8
Maersk	AE1	641W	41	Shanghai, Oct 10

Golden Week blank sailings, Asia-Europe. Source: MSC customer advisory (August 24, 2026) and Maersk advisory (August 20, 2026). Both carriers said cover sailings would be arranged.

Even after those announced cuts, scheduled capacity remained well above last year’s levels. The bigger question is therefore what happens once the delayed vessels clear and post-holiday cargo volumes weaken.

Rates, Suez Returns and Capacity Are Moving Together

The capacity numbers are only one warning sign.

Spot rates on Asia-Europe have now fallen for twelve consecutive weeks. In Drewry’s October 1 assessment, Shanghai-Rotterdam declined another 2% to $3,399 per FEU, while Shanghai-Genoa fell 3% to $3,702.

Carriers have announced higher FAK rates for the second half of October in an attempt to reverse that decline. Drewry considers successful implementation uncertain and expects rates to fall again in its next assessment.

At the same time, more vessels are returning to the shorter Suez route. Drewry reported that Suez transits in week 39 were 68% higher than in the same week of 2025. As services switch back from Cape routings, shorter round voyages increase the amount of effective vessel capacity available on the trade.

Our breakdown of the Maersk, CMA CGM, OOCL and Yang Ming Suez moves covers which carriers have already switched.

Current blank-sailing activity remains relatively limited compared with the amount of scheduled capacity. Drewry’s tracker counted six cancelled Asia-Europe sailings for the week of its October 1 assessment and five for the following week.

That combination matters. Scheduled capacity is unusually high, Suez returns are making vessel deployment more efficient, and rates are still falling. If post-Golden Week cargo demand cannot absorb the available space, carriers have a strong operational reason to remove additional capacity.

Sea-Intelligence warns that this could result in short-notice voyage cancellations and rolled cargo during the second half of October.

Where the Exposure Sits

Schedule reliability is already weak before any additional capacity cuts occur.

Xeneta found that only 6% of Far East-Europe arrivals were on time in August, with an average delay of 8.2 days. Those are levels not seen since late 2021.

Late-October bookings are therefore entering the post-Golden Week period while vessel rotations are already carrying significant accumulated delays. A further blank sailing or vessel change can extend that disruption downstream.

Rolled cargo can appear in shipment data as a different vessel or voyage, a later departure, or a later ETA. A container already gated in at origin may remain at the terminal until another sailing becomes available.

For importers in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, that can push back receiving plans and inland bookings built around the original ETA. For exporters, it can mean containers sitting at origin terminals longer than expected.

The important distinction is between a booking that still exists in a carrier system and a vessel that has actually sailed. During a period of rapidly changing capacity, those are not the same level of certainty.

If your team is catching these changes by checking each carrier’s site booking by booking, see how ops teams get alerted when a container’s vessel or ETA changes.

What to Re-Check Before Mid-October

Every Asia-Europe booking sailing through late October. List each by carrier, service, vessel and voyage so later changes have a baseline to compare against.
Bookings on services with two vessels in the same week. Twelve double sailings are currently scheduled across Golden Week and the following week. Ask your carrier or forwarder which vessel your containers are assigned to.
Cover sailings for blanked voyages. If you were booked on any voyage in the table above, confirm the replacement sailing and its ETD in writing.
Vessel and ETA on containers already gated in. Check these regularly through the second half of October, particularly as carriers begin adjusting post-holiday capacity.
Destination dates as a range. With August Far East-Europe delays averaging 8.2 days, keep inland transport and receiving slots flexible, and recheck when free time starts once the vessel actually discharges.
The rate on rolled cargo. Carriers have announced FAK increases for the second half of October. If a container rolls into a later sailing, confirm which rate applies.

The next two weeks will show whether the unusually high scheduled capacity actually sails or whether carriers begin taking more ships out of the market. For shippers, the useful signal is not the headline capacity number alone, but changes to the vessel, voyage and ETA attached to each individual booking.