The recent US-China tariff agreement marks a significant—if temporary—pause in trade tensions. With tariff rates dramatically reduced and the de minimis loophole adjusted, global trade flows are surging back to life. The result: an immediate spike in eastbound trans-Pacific shipping demand, space shortages, and upward pressure on spot freight rates.
For freight forwarders, importers, and logistics teams, the next 90 days represent a critical window to act. Capacity is tightening, rates are rising, and decisions made this month will ripple through Q3 operations. This post breaks down what changed, what’s happening now in the market, and how logistics professionals can respond effectively.
1. What Changed: US-China Trade Deal Breakdown
a. Tariff Rollbacks
- Pre-Deal Tariffs (as of May 2):
- US tariffs on Chinese imports peaked at 145%—including a 34% reciprocal rate and a fentanyl-specific surcharge.
- China responded with retaliatory tariffs up to 125%.
- Post-Deal Tariffs (effective May 14, 2025):
- US tariff rate drops to 30%—comprising a 10% reciprocal rate and a 20% fentanyl-specific penalty.
- China slashes tariffs to 10% across most US imports.
- These reductions are in place for 90 days. If not extended, US tariffs will revert to 34%—not the full 145%.
| Tariff Type | Before (May 2, 2025) | After (May 14, 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| US Tariffs on Chinese Imports | Up to 145% (including 34% reciprocal + 20% fentanyl-specific) | 30% (10% reciprocal + 20% fentanyl-specific) |
| China Tariffs on US Goods | Up to 125% | 10% |
Reductions in place for 90 days. If not extended, US tariffs will revert to 34% (not the full 145%.)
Source: White House Executive Order
b. De Minimis Overhaul
- Previous Rule: Parcels under $800 from China entered duty-free, often avoiding inspection.
- February 2025: Tariffs increased to 120%, rising to 145% by May 2. Flat $100 fee per parcel introduced.
- May 13 Adjustment: Tariff reduced to 54%; $100 flat fee remains in place.
- Impact: Temu and Shein halted direct shipments; pivoted to US-based fulfillment models to avoid duties.
2. Market Reactions and Rate Trends
a. Spot Rate Surge
| Route | Pre-Deal Rate | Current Rate (May 13–14) |
|---|---|---|
| China to US West Coast (USWC) | $2,400 | $3,000+ |
| China to US East Coast (USEC) | $3,200 | $4,000+ |
Spot rates are rising sharply as importers rush to ship goods under the temporary tariff relief. A $1,000 General Rate Increase (GRI) is scheduled to take effect on May 15, signaling further increases ahead.
b. Booking Behavior & Equipment Shortages
“It’s clear it will be a mad rush to get capacity.” — Jason Cook, Ardent Global Logistics
Forwarders report bookings are filled through late May. Space to the USWC is nearly exhausted, with the USEC and Pacific Northwest lanes close behind. Carriers are withdrawing special rate deals and reallocating space to higher-yield cargo.
c. E-Commerce Market Shift
- Temu and Shein have paused direct exports and shifted to US fulfillment models.
- Consumer product pipelines are adjusting, but demand remains strong.
- Parcel volumes are expected to decline, while containerized freight demand surges.
Sources: Journal of Commerce, Freight Right Index
3. Forwarder Guidance: What to Do Now
a. Book Early & Secure Space
- Secure bookings through June and July now to lock in rates and space.
- Expect limited availability and rapid GRI implementation in the coming weeks.
b. Diversify Routing Strategy
- Explore alternate gateways such as Gulf ports or intermodal rail to reduce congestion risk.
- Balance shipments between USWC and USEC depending on cargo urgency and volume.
c. Revisit Contract vs Spot Allocation
Consider short-term spot exposure during the 90-day window, while retaining core contract capacity to mitigate volatility. Be ready to adjust weekly.
d. Communicate with Shippers and BCOs
- Update clients on expected delays, space constraints, and costs.
- Re-align fulfillment timelines and inventory buffers based on realistic lead times.
e. Plan Around the 90-Day Clock
Heads-up: The reduced tariffs are temporary. If negotiations fail, rates may rise again in August—possibly back to 34% or more.
- Front-load inventory while costs are manageable.
- Monitor government updates and shipping trends weekly.
4. Looking Ahead: What Comes After the 90-Day Window?
a. Trade Negotiation Outlook
The current tariff rollback is a temporary truce. Over the next 90 days, the US and China will engage in further negotiations to determine whether this reduced tariff regime becomes permanent—or reverts to higher levels.
- Discussion areas: IP protections, market access, rare earth export policy, and fentanyl controls.
- Trade officials are also expected to revisit tech-sector restrictions and maritime access issues.
b. Unresolved Policy Risks
- No restoration of the duty-free de minimis exemption.
- Pending US port fees for Chinese vessels still loom.
- China’s export controls on key minerals remain a pressure point.
c. Market Scenarios
| Scenario | Implication |
|---|---|
| Best Case | Tariffs remain at 10–30%, extending trade relief and normalizing freight flows. |
| Baseline Case | Partial extensions granted; political headwinds delay full resolution. |
| Worst Case | Tariffs snap back to 34% or more, causing another spike in rates and demand volatility. |
Source: CNBC
5. Visibility & Resilience in a Volatile Market
In a freight environment defined by surging demand and limited predictability, supply chain success hinges on one factor above all: real-time visibility.
- When space is tight, forwarders must act instantly on confirmed departures and transshipment shifts.
- When rates are rising, up-to-date visibility can inform split bookings and prevent overcharges.
- When customers need clarity, forwarders must proactively share accurate ETAs and updates.
Logistics teams equipped with tools that provide hourly tracking updates, predictive ETAs, and port congestion data are far better positioned to manage exceptions and protect customer trust.
“With volatile shipping conditions and policy risks in play, the ability to react isn’t enough—teams need to anticipate.”
TRADLINX Ocean Visibility offers real-time, per Master B/L tracking with predictive alerts, helping forwarders stay one step ahead. For those navigating a 90-day window of high stakes, the right data can be the difference between proactive control and reactive chaos.
🧭 US-China Tariff & Shipping Snapshot: Before vs After
| Factor | Before Deal (May 2, 2025) | After Deal (May 14, 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| US Tariff on Chinese Imports | 145% (Reciprocal + Fentanyl Surcharge) | 30% (10% Reciprocal + 20% Fentanyl Surcharge) |
| China Tariff on US Goods | Up to 125% | 10% |
| De Minimis Tariff | 120%–145% + $100 flat fee | 54% + $100 flat fee |
| Temu/Shein US Shipments | Direct from China (duty-free under $800) | Paused; switched to US-based fulfillment |
| Spot Rate to USWC | $2,400 | $3,000+ and rising |
| Spot Rate to USEC | $3,200 | $4,000+ and rising |
6. Key Takeaways
- Tariff relief is real—but temporary: US and China have rolled back punitive tariffs for 90 days, with talks ongoing.
- The de minimis loophole is narrowing: A 54% tariff and $100 flat fee on low-value parcels is reshaping e-commerce logistics.
- Ocean freight demand is surging: Spot rates are climbing and space is tightening across key trans-Pacific lanes.
- Forwarders must act now: Book ahead, diversify routes, and prepare clients for volatility in cost and timing.
- Visibility = resilience: Proactive tools like predictive ETAs and hourly tracking are essential to navigate this landscape efficiently.
7. Sources & References
- White House Executive Order on Tariffs
- CBS News – De Minimis Tariff Change
- Reuters – US Cuts Parcel Tariffs
- Journal of Commerce – Capacity Crunch
- Freight Right Index – Rate Tracking
- CNBC – Trade Impact Analysis
- CNN – US-China Trade Announcement
- BBC – US-China Tariff Update
Note: All referenced content accessed and verified as of May 14, 2025.
8. Industry Questions, Clear Answers: Navigating the 90-Day Trade Surge
Amid shifting tariffs, evolving rules, and overwhelmed systems, logistics professionals are facing new operational questions daily. Below are four of the most pressing ones — along with clear, practical answers forwarders and shippers can act on today.
❓ Q1: “Our clients are confused — are these tariff cuts permanent, or just a delay?”
Answer: These are temporary reductions. The 30% US tariff (down from 145%) is only guaranteed for 90 days starting May 14. Without an extension, tariffs may revert to 34% or more. Advise clients to front-load shipments while this window is open.
Action: Integrate tariff expiration dates into shipping forecasts. Use this period to renegotiate rate locks and secure carrier allocations.
❓ Q2: “Why are our low-value parcels now triggering duties — weren’t they exempt?”
Answer: The de minimis exemption is no longer duty-free. Parcels under $800 from China are now subject to a 54% tariff + $100 flat fee. This change directly impacts e-commerce players and small-parcel importers.
Action: Recommend U.S.-based fulfillment or bulk freight consolidation. For some, switching to containerized freight may now be more cost-efficient than parcel imports.
❓ Q3: “Some of our shipments are getting flagged for steel or aluminum tariffs — even when there’s none. What’s going on?”
Answer: Tariff logic tied to HTS codes is catching goods that shouldn’t be affected (e.g. yoga balls flagged under metal chapters). CBP guidance requires disclaiming by entering zero values — but origin and melt/smelt data must still be provided.
Action: Review flagged HTS codes with brokers. Monitor CBP’s 232 and IEEPA FAQs for daily logic updates.
❓ Q4: “ACE and broker platforms are glitching — how can we keep customs entries moving?”
Answer: CBP’s ACE systems and platforms like Cargowise are under stress from rapid updates. Brokers are relying on workarounds while systems catch up.
Action: Build in lead time buffers and notify customers of clearance delays. Follow CBP CSMS alerts to stay ahead of programming changes and tariff implementation quirks.
Why overpay for visibility? Tradlinx saves you 40% with transparent per–Master B/L pricing. Get 99% accuracy, 12 updates daily, and 80% ETA accuracy improvements, trusted by 83,000+ logistics teams and global leaders like Samsung and LG Chem.
Prefer email? Contact us directly at min.so@tradlinx.com (Americas), sondre.lyndon@tradlinx.com (Europe) or henry.jo@tradlinx.com (EMEA/Asia)
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