On 9 July we published a watch list for the AE15 return to Suez. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd had announced three days earlier that the Gemini service would move from the Cape of Good Hope to the trans-Suez route, with Majestic Maersk named as the first sailing.

The question was whether another deterioration in regional security would produce the reversal seen in February and March. Since then, the Houthis have declared a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping, Saudi tankers have been attacked or threatened, and an Indian-flagged commercial vessel has been struck and sunk off Yemen.

No reversal was visible in the public Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd advisories reviewed through 6 August. Instead, Maersk expanded its structural return from one announced service to three: AE15/SE3, MECL and WAF6.

The difference matters. The Houthi blockade announcement remains selectively focused on Saudi-linked vessels, but the wider threat to shipping in the corridor is not confined to that declared target set. Incident headlines alone therefore do not tell a shipper whether a particular container service will remain on Suez, revert to the Cape or change one sailing at a time.

The Sequence Since 6 July

Carrier changes are drawn from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd advisories. Incident details are drawn from UKMTO assessments, official statements and maritime reporting. Houthi attack totals and uncorroborated outcomes remain claims unless separately confirmed. Full links appear in Further Reading.

Three Services, Not One

The 9 July watch list noted that Maersk had stated there were no plans to move another Gemini service and that no wider East–West network change was then under consideration.

The subsequent July announcements did not contradict that statement in its original scope. AE15/SE3 remains the only additional Gemini service named in the changes. MECL and WAF6 are solely operated by Maersk, allowing the carrier to expand its own Red Sea deployment without announcing another Gemini network change.

The rotation published with the 6 July AE15 announcement was Qingdao, Kwangyang, Ningbo, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Said, Damietta, Colombo and Singapore. Maersk subsequently announced that Jeddah would be added during August, although it did not identify the exact first sailing.

Once its Jeddah call is implemented, the MECL eastbound rotation will be Charleston, Savannah, Houston, Norfolk, Newark, Tangiers, Jeddah, Salalah, Mundra, Pipavav and Nhava Sheva.

Why the February Comparison Only Goes So Far

Gemini moved ME11 to the Red Sea in February. On 27 February, Maersk announced that selected ME11 and MECL sailings would return to the Cape because constraints in the wider Red Sea operating environment were making delays difficult to avoid.

On 1 March, following a broader deterioration in regional security and escalating military conflict, Maersk paused future trans-Suez sailings on both services and moved all subsequent ME11 and MECL sailings around the Cape.

The July and August situation is not an exact replay. UKMTO’s JMIC assessment dated 4 August rated the threat in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb as substantial, meaning that a further maritime security incident was a strong possibility. It described the Houthis’ formal announcement as selectively focused on Saudi-linked vessels and said that no coordinated or imminent hostile action against general commercial traffic had been indicated.

That assessment did not mean non-Saudi shipping was free from danger. The Indian-flagged MSV Faize Noore Oliya was struck and sank off Yemen on 4 August. The incident had not been conclusively attributed at the time of writing, but it demonstrates why the Houthis’ declared target set cannot be treated as the full boundary of operational risk in the corridor.

The same JMIC assessment rated the northern Red Sea and Suez Canal area moderate, with no confirmed disruption to canal operations. The Gulf of Aden was rated substantial, while the wider Middle East maritime region remained under a severe regional assessment because of overlapping threats in areas including the Strait of Hormuz.

Those distinctions do not make the Suez route safe, and they do not guarantee that the July service changes will remain in place. They do explain why a confirmed attack on a Saudi tanker does not automatically produce the same carrier response as a broader regional conflict affecting several operating corridors at once.

The incident headline is therefore only the first input. A carrier or insurer may also consider the incident location, vessel ownership, management, flag, trading history, port exposure, current intelligence assessment and whether the change affects one sailing or the service structure as a whole.

The Risk Now Sits at Two Levels

For cargo already assigned to a trans-Suez sailing, there is a voyage-level exposure. The carrier may alter that sailing, change its timing or impose additional security measures even while the published service continues to use Suez. Cargo insurance, war-risk terms and any carrier right to pass through emergency costs also need to be checked against the actual voyage.

There is still a service-level exposure. All three Maersk service advisories reserve the right to return individual sailings or the wider structural service change to the Cape of Good Hope. The later AE15 Jeddah advisory repeats the same contingency. A wider reversal would restore longer transit times and could disrupt inland bookings, delivery commitments and inventory plans rebuilt around the July schedules.

The change since July is therefore not that transit-time risk has disappeared and been replaced by war risk. Both now need to be managed at the same time.

If your team is confirming which routing each booking actually rides by working through carrier advisory pages sailing by sailing, walk through how ops teams hold routing and milestone status at the vessel level across services in one view.

The Jeddah Calls Are the Next Changes to Diary

Both AE15 and MECL are expected to add calls at Jeddah during August. Maersk has not published the exact first AE15 sailing in the Jeddah advisory. For MECL, the call applies to the eastbound rotation from the US East Coast towards India and the Middle East.

Depending on the booked route, Jeddah may serve as a port of discharge, a transshipment point or an intermediate call where the container remains aboard. Those are operationally different outcomes and should be confirmed against the individual booking rather than inferred from the published service rotation.

Jeddah is also the port covered in our review of where Gulf containers actually discharge now. Hapag-Lloyd’s operational update on 1 July reported yard density of up to 90 percent and a 20 to 25 percent reduction in productivity. Its next update, dated 9 July, put yard density at 84 percent.

The movement between those two readings illustrates the limitation of treating any congestion figure as a fixed planning assumption. Conditions can improve or deteriorate between the booking date, the vessel’s departure and the container’s arrival.

Jeddah’s role also needs to be checked against carrier-specific inland restrictions. Hapag-Lloyd stated on 9 July that it was no longer accepting merchant-haulage cross-border cargo movements through Jeddah and that its own cross-border carrier-haulage solution to the Upper Gulf was unavailable until further notice. Cargo to Dammam and Jubail could continue through its established Jeddah landbridge, while other Upper Gulf destinations were being offered alternative routings.

Jeddah Islamic Port introduced a temporary incentive effective from 19 July, extending the storage-fee exemption for qualifying transit containers to 15 days for a 60-day period. That may reduce storage exposure for some transshipment cargo, but the applicable tariff, cargo category and event that starts the clock still need to be confirmed for the individual shipment.

The planning point is broader than one congestion reading or incentive. An estimated average 14-day improvement in the MECL eastbound ocean schedule does not guarantee the same improvement in final delivery. In severely delayed cases, part or all of the gain can still be lost during discharge, transshipment, release or onward movement.

What to Re-Check Now

• Whether the specific vessel and voyage assigned to your booking is using the trans-Suez route. A published service routing does not prevent a per-sailing change.
• Whether vessel ownership, management, flag, trading history, Saudi port exposure or other affiliations change the voyage’s security assessment or insurance treatment.
• Your cargo war-risk cover and the carrier’s surcharge terms, including when cover attaches and whether additional emergency or war-risk costs can be passed through after booking.
• For AE15/SE3 and MECL eastbound cargo, whether the container will discharge, transship or remain aboard at Jeddah once the calls are implemented.
• Whether a proposed inland movement from Jeddah is accepted by the relevant carrier. Hapag-Lloyd’s cross-border merchant-haulage and carrier-haulage restrictions do not automatically describe the options offered by another line.
• If cargo is discharged or held at an intermediate port, which storage or free-time rules apply and which operational event starts the clock. Do not assume ordinary destination demurrage rules apply to through-transshipment cargo.
• Whether inland bookings, delivery appointments and inventory commitments built around the shorter July transit times can absorb an individual-sailing or service-wide return to the Cape.
• Whether services used on other carriers have changed. Container News has reported increased Suez use by CMA CGM, while Saudi tanker operators have already diverted some voyages around Africa.

Need help interpreting this disruption or your shipment?
For a quick question, chat with Tradlinx on WhatsApp. For a deeper discussion, book a time below.

Prefer email? Contact us directly at min.so@tradlinx.com (Americas), sondre.lyndon@tradlinx.com (Europe), or henry.jo@tradlinx.com (EMEA/Asia).

Further Reading

• Structural changes to AE15 Gemini service, Maersk
• Routing update for the SE3 service, Hapag-Lloyd
• Structural changes to MECL, Maersk
• Structural changes to WAF6, Maersk
• AE15 adding Jeddah call, Maersk
• Update 080 to JMIC Advisory Note, 4 August 2026, UKMTO
• Houthis say they attacked two Saudi tankers; Saudi Arabia confirms one ablaze, Reuters
• Six Saudi tankers turn away from Gulf of Aden, Reuters
• Indian vessel sinks near Yemen after projectile strike; crew rescued, Economic Times
• Boxship detours round Cape of Good Hope drop to lowest since 2024, Container News
• Yemen’s Houthis declare naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, Al Jazeera
• ME11 and MECL sailing changes, 27 February 2026, Maersk
• Rerouting of ME11 and MECL around the Cape of Good Hope, 1 March 2026, Maersk
• Middle East Operational Update, 1 July 2026, Hapag-Lloyd
• Middle East Operational Update, 9 July 2026, Hapag-Lloyd
• Update on bookings from Jeddah to the Upper Gulf, Hapag-Lloyd
• Jeddah Islamic Port transit-storage incentive, Saudi Press Agency

Service routings, rotations, vessel names and transit-time figures are drawn from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd customer advisories dated 6, 9 and 13 July 2026. The statement that no reversal was visible reflects the public carrier advisories reviewed through 6 August 2026; a later, voyage-specific or customer-specific notice may supersede them. Security assessments reflect UKMTO’s JMIC advisory dated 4 August. The sinking of MSV Faize Noore Oliya was confirmed by Indian officials, but attribution had not been conclusively established at the time of writing. References to the 5 August Saudi-tanker attacks remain Houthi claims that had not been independently confirmed. Jeddah yard-density and productivity figures are dated Hapag-Lloyd snapshots from 1 and 9 July, while the transit-storage incentive took effect on 19 July for a stated 60-day period. Routings and security conditions in this corridor can change at short notice. Confirm the route of the specific vessel and voyage, applicable cargo and war-risk cover, and relevant storage and free-time terms before booking.