Global container schedule reliability fell to 49.9% in August, according to Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance report. That is the lowest reading since September 2022, and vessels that arrived late were an average of 6.81 days behind schedule.
For anyone loading cargo in Asia between now and Chinese New Year, one useful early warning sits on the vessel’s rotation before it reaches your load port. On many long-haul services, the vessel named on a near-term booking still has upstream calls to complete before reaching Asia or your origin port. Delay accumulated on those calls increases the risk of a later ETD if the carrier cannot recover the lost time, and that slippage may become visible in vessel movements before the published booking schedule changes.
August: Fewer Than Half of Vessels Arrived on Time
Reliability dropped 5.9 percentage points month on month in August, the second sharp monthly decline in a row. No top-13 carrier improved on its July figure or on August 2025.
| Carrier or alliance | Schedule reliability | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Maersk | 67.3% | August 2026 |
| Hapag-Lloyd | 61.5% | August 2026 |
| MSC | 55.2% | August 2026 |
| CMA CGM | 50.6% | August 2026 |
| Wan Hai (lowest of the top 13) | 23.2% | August 2026 |
| Gemini Cooperation | 77.8% | July/August 2026 |
| MSC (standalone network) | 70.1% | July/August 2026 |
| Ocean Alliance | 48.3% | July/August 2026 |
| Premier Alliance | 43.2% | July/August 2026 |
| Global average | 49.9% | August 2026 |
Carrier choice still changes the odds, with 44.1 points separating Maersk and Wan Hai. Even so, the best-performing top-13 carrier in August missed its arrival window on roughly one call in three.
Reliability providers define “on time” differently, so a figure from one source shouldn’t be compared directly with another’s. Our comparison of the Sea-Intelligence and Xeneta measures explains where the methods diverge.
The Delay Starts on the Leg Into Asia
Sea-Intelligence’s July lane data shows where the deterioration concentrated. Services heading into Asia, particularly backhaul legs from North America and Europe, took some of the largest hits.
| Trade lane into Asia | Reliability change, July 2026 | Vessel arrivals |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast South America-Asia | -12.3 pp | Not reported |
| Europe-Asia | -11.2 pp | 1,045 |
| Oceania-Asia | -9.1 pp | Not reported |
| North America-Asia | -8.3 pp | 1,841 |
| All eight lanes ending in Asia | -7.5 pp (average) | 39% of all tradelane arrivals |
Sea-Intelligence read the pattern as a widespread problem with vessels returning into Asian hubs, spread across many origins, and warned that the backlog could trigger further delays on head-haul trades. Its subsequent analysis also found that the deterioration was disproportionately concentrated on lower-volume backhaul trades: when reliability was weighted by cargo volumes, the result was more than six percentage points better than the vessel-based global measure.
The reason this matters to an Asia exporter comes down to how liner services run. Each service is a loop. The ship due to load your cargo in Ningbo next month may today be discharging in Rotterdam, or waiting at anchor off another port on its way through the rotation. Time lost on those upstream calls has to be absorbed or recovered before the vessel reaches your port of loading; otherwise it can push the ETD later. Carriers can claw time back by omitting a call, adjusting speeds or port stays, or swapping in another vessel, though those moves can change the routing or timing of a booking as well.
One of the earliest visible signs of a late departure can therefore be the vessel’s movement on its upstream rotation. That movement may show a growing gap against the schedule before a revised ETD reaches the booking.
If your team usually finds out about a slipped departure when the carrier reissues the schedule, walk through how ops teams follow the inbound leg and flag a late ETD early.
Where Vessels Are Waiting: Tradlinx Port Congestion Data
The Tradlinx Port Congestion Index for September 7 to 20 shows how concentrated the queue is. Of all vessels waiting to berth, 83% were at ports rated CONGESTED, and Northeast Asia accounted for the largest regional share at 43%.
Shanghai held at BUSY on a two-week average berthing delay of 8.8 hours. Its shorter windows kept climbing through the period, reaching 10.0 hours over the final week and 12.2 hours over the final three days.
Ningbo moved into CONGESTED at 10.7 hours, up 50% on the previous two weeks.
Waits like these can propagate along a rotation when the lost time is not recovered between calls. A vessel delayed at several ports before reaching yours can therefore carry part of that disruption forward.
How Long Sea-Intelligence Expects the Backlog to Last
Sea-Intelligence estimates that delays are absorbing 8.5% of the global containership fleet, about 3 million TEU. Between 2011 and 2019 the average was 2.2%.
Based on recovery rates after the pandemic and the first Red Sea disruption, the analyst puts the return to June 2025 congestion levels at seven to ten months away. Getting back to end-2025 conditions would take six to eight months on the same basis. Chinese New Year falls on February 6, 2027, so the pre-holiday export rush is likely to arrive with the backlog only partly cleared.
The pressure is also spreading beyond the worst-affected gateways. As carriers alter rotations or skip heavily delayed calls, disruption can migrate toward transshipment hubs and downstream ports in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
What to Re-Check on Q4 and Pre-CNY Bookings
- The inbound leg of each booked vessel: For Asia-origin bookings loading through January, take the vessel and voyage from the booking confirmation and compare the vessel’s current movement with its scheduled calls ahead of your port of loading.
- Upstream calls at Shanghai or Ningbo: If the rotation calls either port before yours, check the latest berthing delay at each one. Lost time there can carry forward if it is not recovered before your load port.
- A gap with no carrier update: When the vessel is running behind and the published ETD hasn’t moved, build the possibility of a later departure into your plan until the carrier confirms whether and how the time will be recovered.
- Port omissions and transshipment changes: An omitted call can shift your cargo to a different load port or add a transshipment hub. Re-check the routing and connection on any booking named in an omission notice.
- Pre-CNY cut-offs: Work back from factory closures ahead of February 6, 2027. With late vessels averaging 6.81 days behind schedule in August, a January sailing booked without buffer is exposed.
- Exports into Asia from Europe or North America: Expect arrival estimates to move with destination port queues, and set inland pickup plans against the vessel’s actual berthing time.
Further Reading
- Sea-Intelligence: Global Schedule Reliability Continues to Plummet in August (Container News)
- Port congestion on Asia sees liner schedule reliability plummet (The Loadstar)
- Delays mount as port disruption in Asia ties up 3m teu of box capacity (The Loadstar)
- Asian box port congestion could take 10 months to unwind (Splash247)
- Sea-Intelligence: Asian port congestion could persist into mid-2027 (WorldCargo News, subscription)
- Tradlinx Port Congestion Index: data as of September 20, 2026
Schedule reliability, late-arrival delay and lane figures come from Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance reports (issue 180 for July 2026, issue 181 for August 2026), as reported by Container News and The Loadstar. Fleet absorption and recovery estimates are Sea-Intelligence analysis reported by The Loadstar and Splash247 in late September 2026. Port wait figures come from the Tradlinx Port Congestion Index, September 7 to 20, 2026 edition, derived from the Port Congestion API, with data as of September 20, 2026. Confirm vessel schedules, port omissions and service changes directly with your carrier.
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