TRADLINX

Three developments have shifted the Q2 freight cost picture in ways the April surcharge tables don’t fully capture. On April 23, Antwerp-Bruges released its Q1 throughput report. A month earlier, on March 23, the last LNG tanker from Qatar arrived at Zeebrugge with no published restart date. And on April 22, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized the container ship MSC Francesca and the cargo ship Epaminondas in the Strait of Hormuz.

These are discrete events with a shared implication: Q1 was the leading edge of a disruption whose full impact lands in Q2. The April 21 surcharge tables remain accurate as a rate snapshot, but the cost-exposure picture underneath them has shifted in ways those tables don’t reflect.

What Antwerp’s Q1 actually says

The headline: 65.5 million tonnes of maritime cargo, down 3.2% year-on-year, with container throughput at 3.4 million TEU — a 2.6% TEU decline. Most of that loss came from familiar operational drag: a January snowstorm and prolonged cold spell, severe storms in the Bay of Biscay through mid-February, and a four-day strike against pension reform. The port estimates roughly 100,000 TEU were lost to those disruptions alone. The 2025 comparison base was also unusually strong, inflated by alliance restructuring that drove elevated inbound volumes.

The more telling number sits in the Persian Gulf trade flow. Antwerp’s imports from the Persian Gulf fell 12% in Q1 and exports to the Persian Gulf fell 49%. The port attributes most of that to weather, with two specific late-March events flagged as early signals of a different story. The last LNG tanker from Qatar arrived at Zeebrugge on March 23, and container lines began redrawing schedules toward alternative Middle East and eastern Mediterranean ports. Q1 captured roughly 30 days of post–February 28 disruption — the period when the US-Israel-Iran air war began and the Strait of Hormuz was largely blocked. Q2 captures the next 90.

What was actually happening in March

Container shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively halted since early March. Carriers paused transits within days of the February 28 escalation and have not resumed regular service. Hapag-Lloyd activated a War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per TEU and $3,500 per reefer/special equipment on March 2 for cargo to and from the Upper, Persian, and Arabian Gulf, citing the Strait of Hormuz situation directly. CMA CGM followed the same day with an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of $2,000 per 20ft, $3,000 per 40ft, and $4,000 per reefer or special equipment. By early March, Maersk, MSC, and ONE had issued similar emergency cost advisories.

Closing the strait redirected pressure rather than reducing it. Cargo bound for or from the Gulf was diverted to a smaller set of gateway ports, where it now congests. Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Fujairah, and Salalah have all been flagged for elevated congestion in carrier and forwarder advisories. Salalah was suspended for roughly 48 hours after a drone attack on March 28. Vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to typical Asia–Europe transits and consuming materially more bunker fuel against an oil price that has continued to rise.

Brent settled at $105.33 per barrel on April 24, up roughly 16% on the week, with dated spot trading at a more than $25 premium to the front-month futures contract — a backwardation reflecting acute short-term tightness as buyers scramble to replace volumes obstructed by the strait. That premium gets paid by the next stage of the supply chain.

For most of February and March, the crisis read primarily as an energy story: tankers, LNG, oil prices, war-risk premiums on insurance. The April 22 seizures shifted the framing. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired on three vessels in the strait that morning and seized two — MSC Francesca, an Italian-owned, Panama-flagged vessel of the world’s largest container line by capacity, and Epaminondas, a Liberian-flagged cargo ship. The Greek-owned Euphoria escaped after maneuvering through the strait. UKMTO has warned of “high levels of activity” in the strait. The seizures matter because they happened to ships attempting to transit a strait that had effectively been closed to container shipping for over a month — meaning the security risk is now priced into containers, not just tankers.

What’s moved since the April 21 surcharge tables

Six things have shifted since our April 21 surcharge update. None are reflected in the published rate cards.

• Brent has surged. From the high $90s in mid-April to $105.33 at last week’s close, with a roughly 16% weekly gain. Spot is at a more than $25 premium to futures, indicating immediate market tightness.
• Hapag-Lloyd WRS is fully active. $1,500 per TEU, $3,500 per reefer/special, in force since March 2 for Gulf cargo. FMC-scope cargo (US ↔ UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Yemen, Pakistan) became subject to the same WRS effective April 1.
• CMA CGM ECS is in force. $2,000 per 20ft / $3,000 per 40ft / $4,000 per reefer or special equipment for cargo to or from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, Qatar, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt/Ain Sokhna, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea. Suez routing suspended; Cape of Good Hope rerouting in effect.
• Spot rates have moved on lanes that don’t even cross Hormuz. Asia-to-North Europe spot rates are up roughly 20% since late February to around $2,900/FEU (Xeneta). Transpacific to USWC is up more than 40% to roughly $2,420/FEU (Freightos Baltic Index). The pattern is sentiment-driven precautionary booking, not capacity loss on those specific lanes — meaning the rate move is less anchored than fundamentals would normally support, and could reverse quickly if diplomacy holds.
• Qatar LNG to Northwest Europe is suspended. Last tanker arrived Zeebrugge March 23. No published restart date.
• Gateway port congestion has built up. Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Fujairah, and Salalah are all flagged for elevated dwell times. Demurrage and detention exposure has risen with congestion. Standard free-time clauses calibrated for Jebel Ali don’t necessarily fit the current dwell profile at Khor Fakkan or Sohar.

Tracking which surcharges apply to which open bookings, on which dates each carrier’s WRS started, and which ports are still receiving cargo can become a real time sink in this kind of cycle. Walk through how ops teams consolidate carrier disruption signals into a single view.

Six risks to review before Q2 contract renewals

The April surcharge tables are still the best published rate snapshot, but they aren’t a complete Q2 exposure picture. Six positions worth reviewing in the next two weeks:

• Open Gulf bookings. Identify every shipment to or from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or Jordan that has not yet loaded. Hapag-Lloyd’s WRS, CMA CGM’s ECS, and equivalent surcharges from Maersk and MSC apply to bookings issued on or after their respective effective dates and to cargo already on the water but not yet discharged. This is the largest single uncosted exposure in most Q1-issued bookings.
• Asia–Europe routing assumptions. Cape of Good Hope rerouting was already standard for carriers serving routes that historically used the Red Sea or Hormuz. The April 22 seizures add container-specific risk to any route still using the strait, and force alliance-level schedule rework that takes time to settle. Transit-time creep typically precedes rate creep by three to six weeks. If your Q2 plan assumes 2025 transit times, model a creep scenario.
• LNG and energy-feedstock procurement. If any internal procurement assumed Qatar-to-Northwest-Europe LNG flow, that route has stopped. Replacement source and route are not yet stable. Worth checking with energy procurement before assuming pass-through pricing on any product whose feedstock chain touches Qatari LNG.
• Demurrage and detention exposure at gateway ports. Containers diverted to Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Fujairah, or Salalah are facing extended dwell times. Standard free-time clauses that worked at Jebel Ali don’t necessarily work at Khor Fakkan with current congestion. Worth recalibrating internal D&D risk assumptions for any cargo routing through these ports.
• Spot vs contract exposure on Asia–Europe and transpacific lanes. Spot moves on these lanes are sentiment-driven rather than capacity-driven. If you have spot exposure that needs to clear in May, the US–Iran talks in Pakistan are a wild card — rates could revert quickly on diplomatic progress, or compound if talks break down. Contract cargo on annual rates is largely insulated, but any spot booking issued at peak-of-week levels needs a defensible reason now, not after the fact.
• Insurance riders and surcharge pass-through. War-risk surcharges typically pass through, but carrier and forwarder rate cards differ on what’s absorbed versus levied, and on whether the WRS is itemized or rolled into base. Worth checking the fine print before booking Q2 spot or signing an annual.

The takeaway

The signals worth tracking sit underneath the Antwerp headline: Persian Gulf imports down 12% and exports down 49%, the last Qatar LNG tanker out of Zeebrugge on March 23, carrier WRS rate cards active since March 2, the gateway ports congesting under diverted volume, and the MSC Francesca on its way to Iranian shores. Each landed inside Q1. The compounding lands in Q2.

The April 21 surcharge tables are a useful Q2 starting point, but the final cost is likely to come in higher.

Sources and further reading

• Port of Antwerp-Bruges Q1 2026 throughput report — summary at Port Technology International and analysis at The Loadstar
• Hapag-Lloyd War Risk Surcharge (March 2, 2026, with FMC-scope addition effective April 1) — official notice
• CMA CGM Emergency Conflict Surcharge (March 2, 2026) — Advisory #2
• U.S. Energy Information Administration on Brent backwardation and the Hormuz disruption — “Brent crude oil spot prices surge past futures price in April”
• NBC News live coverage of the April 22 ship seizures — Iran seizes ships after Trump extends ceasefire
• UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) — advisories for the Strait of Hormuz region
• Tradlinx — Every Major Carrier’s Inland Fuel Surcharge, April 2026 Edition (the April 21 rate tables referenced above)

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Carrier surcharge rates reflect published levels at time of writing and may change as carriers update their rate cards. Spot freight rate ranges reflect industry-reported levels (Xeneta, Freightos Baltic Index) and are subject to lane-specific variation. Sources are linked above for direct verification.

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