The Capacity Signal Behind Maersk’s $2–4bn EBIT Forecast

On 29 June, Maersk raised its full-year 2026 guidance from a range that allowed for an underlying operating loss to one that sits firmly in positive territory. The number is a headline for investors. For anyone planning ocean freight in the second half of the year, the more useful question is what changed underneath it.

The answer is that effective container capacity has remained tighter than the fleet orderbook suggested it would be. Strong Far East demand, longer voyage distances, congestion, and higher spot rates have absorbed enough capacity for Maersk to lift its outlook sharply. That does not mean every surcharge revision or blank sailing comes from the same cause. It does mean the assumptions behind your original rate, allocation, routing, and sailing plan deserve another check.

What the upgrade actually says

Maersk now expects underlying EBIT of USD 2-4bn for 2026, up from a previous range of USD -1.5bn to USD 1bn. Underlying EBITDA guidance rose to USD 8-10bn from USD 4.5-7bn. Maersk now expects free cash flow of at least USD -1.5bn, improved from at least USD -3bn.

Maersk attributed the upgrade to continued strong container demand, particularly in the Far East, and a sustained increase in spot-market rates. It also raised its full-year global container-market growth assumption from 2-4% to approximately 4%. Only weeks ago, the bottom of its EBIT range allowed for an underlying operating loss of USD 1.5bn. The new floor is positive USD 2bn.

The important signal is not simply that Maersk expects to earn more. It is that the market has absorbed capacity more effectively than expected. Splash247, citing Linerlytica, reported that global TEU-mile demand is expanding by approximately 7.3%, ahead of fleet-supply growth of 5.4%. That is the widest reported demand-supply gap since late 2024.

Congestion is removing capacity at the same time. Almost 11% of the world’s containership fleet is currently waiting outside ports, the highest share since 2022, according to the same report. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has climbed above 3,200 points, while both freight and charter markets have strengthened.

Why the orderbook has not pushed rates down

On paper, 2026 was supposed to be defined by excess vessel supply. The containership orderbook stands near 12m TEU, equivalent to more than a third of the existing fleet, with deliveries expected to peak in 2027. Under normal operating conditions, that volume of new tonnage should place downward pressure on rates.

But nominal fleet size and effective capacity are not the same thing. Longer routes around disrupted waterways require more vessels to maintain the same weekly service. Port congestion keeps ships waiting instead of carrying cargo. Strong export demand from the Far East adds more TEU-miles even when the number of physical containers does not rise at the same pace.

Those factors have absorbed much of the additional tonnage. The result is a market that can have a historically large orderbook and still produce higher spot rates, constrained space on particular lanes, and a major earnings upgrade from one of its largest carriers.

That does not make the strength permanent. Analysts quoted by Splash247 largely view the current conditions as disruption-supported rather than the beginning of a conventional long-term shipping upcycle. If congestion eases, voyage distances shorten, or newbuild deliveries continue while demand weakens, the capacity balance can reverse quickly.

Two Maersk notices show why lane-level monitoring still matters

The earnings upgrade describes the global market. The operational notices reaching shippers are more specific. Two recent Maersk updates illustrate why costs and available capacity still need to be checked by location and service, even when the notices do not share the same underlying cause as the guidance increase.

European inland fuel fees are easing, but have not disappeared

Maersk has revised its Intermodal Fuel Fee for several European markets for the period from 6 to 20 July. In the Benelux region, the fee is set at 7% for truck and barge/BCO moves and 3.5% for RCO. In Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, it is 4% for truck and barge/BCO and 2% for RCO. In Poland, it is 4% for truck and 2% for RCO.

The percentages apply to Maersk’s IHI/IHE inland-haulage charges and are reviewed every two weeks. The fee was introduced in March as a temporary response to energy-market volatility and higher inland transport costs.

The July levels are lower than the immediately preceding levels in several markets. In Benelux, for example, truck and barge/BCO fees fell from 10% to 7%, while RCO fell from 5% to 3.5%. In Poland, truck fell from 6% to 4% and RCO from 3% to 2%.

This is therefore an easing of an existing inland charge, not evidence that Maersk is adding a new cost because ocean capacity is tight. The operational point is that the fee remains active and can move every two weeks, so an inland figure captured when the shipment was first planned may no longer be the figure that applies at the relevant price-calculation date.

Northern Star is losing another seasonal sailing

Maersk will blank the Capitaine Baret 636S southbound / 639N northbound rotation on its Northern Star Asia-Oceania service. The southbound voyage was scheduled to depart Shanghai on 6 September, while the northbound voyage was due to leave Tauranga on 17 October.

Maersk attributed the cancellation to cargo seasonality and demand fluctuations. Affected bookings will generally move to the next available sailing. For Brisbane imports from Shanghai and Hong Kong, Maersk says it will use alternative services to maintain weekly coverage.

This is not a transpacific capacity cut, and it does not explain Maersk’s global earnings upgrade. It is a lane-specific capacity adjustment affecting Asia-Australia/New Zealand cargo later in the year.

It is also not the first recent Northern Star adjustment. Maersk previously blanked the Capitaine Baret 628S / 631N rotation, scheduled to depart Shanghai on 12 July and Tauranga on 22 August, citing the same combination of seasonality and demand fluctuations. Two announced blankings on the same service make the issue more relevant for shippers using that corridor than one isolated cancellation would.

What to re-check before your next bookings

Whether your rate reflects the current spot market. FreightWaves reported that daily China-US West Coast spot rates increased from approximately USD 1,800 in March to more than USD 6,100 at the end of June, an increase of roughly 239%. If your agreement references spot rates or an external index, part of that movement may already be flowing through. If you are on a fixed contract, re-check whether your allocation and named-account commitments remain sufficient during periods of stronger spot demand.

Your inland cost line, not only the ocean leg. The European fuel-fee update shows how an inland surcharge can move within a two-week review cycle. The latest direction is downward in several countries, but the charge remains active and the applicable percentage depends on the price-calculation date.

The US inland picture is also changing. Maersk recently moved much of its Southern California eastbound intermodal volume from BNSF to Union Pacific. RailState’s tracking indicates that most of the affected containers now travel on Union Pacific’s Sunset Route. That can change the routing, receiving ramp, rail transit pattern, and operational handoffs attached to a shipment.

Space and rollover risk on the lane you actually use. The global market can be tight while an individual service is blanked because demand on that specific corridor is weaker than expected. Those conditions are not contradictory. Carriers deploy capacity at the service level, and removing one voyage means the surrounding sailings must absorb the affected cargo.

For Northern Star customers, check whether cargo originally assigned to the cancelled rotation has a confirmed position on the replacement sailing rather than assuming the booking automatically retains the same priority.

Your actual availability and last-free-day milestones. A blank sailing or routing change can shift discharge and availability dates even when the final destination remains the same. Re-check actual discharge, availability, last free day, and pickup milestones rather than relying on the schedule contained in the original booking confirmation.

Why it matters

Maersk’s guidance upgrade is evidence that effective container capacity remains tighter than the fleet orderbook alone suggested. Demand measured in TEU-miles is growing faster than fleet supply, while congestion and longer voyage distances continue to remove usable capacity from the market.

That global picture does not tell you exactly what will happen to an individual shipment. European inland fuel fees can fall while ocean spot rates rise. A carrier can report strong global demand while removing a sailing from a weaker regional service. A Southern California container can keep the same ocean booking but move inland over a different railroad.

The practical task is therefore not to treat every carrier notice as evidence of one market-wide trend. It is to identify which change applies to your lane, your sailing, your inland move, and your container before the original plan stops matching the shipment.

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