November 2026 Transpacific GRIs: What Importers Should Check

Carriers announced Asia–US general rate increases of $2,000 to $3,000/FEU scheduled for November 1. In its November 3 update, Freightos reported that transpacific daily spot rates had not risen so far that week, while some forwarders doubted that further increases would hold.

For importers booking now, the immediate task is to check what each quote includes and which shipment event fixes the applicable rate. A softening index does not guarantee a lower quote, and a later sailing does not automatically make an announced GRI payable. The governing tariff or rate agreement determines how a change affects your shipment.

Where Transpacific Rates Stand

Source and coverage	Assessment or update	West Coast	East Coast	Weekly change
Freightos Baltic Index China/East Asia to North America	November 3 update; weekly figures for the preceding week	$8,340	$9,911	West approximately level; East −6%
Drewry WCI lane assessments From Shanghai	October 29	$7,514 Los Angeles	$9,631 New York	Los Angeles −6%; New York −5%
Xeneta market average Far East to US	October 23	$8,311	$11,525	Both +0.2%
Freight Right lowest reported offers China to US	Week of October 26	As low as $6,300	As low as $7,200	Forwarder reports market rates unchanged

Ocean rates in US dollars per FEU. Sources: Freightos, Drewry, Xeneta and Freight Right. Coverage, dates, included charges and methods differ. Lowest reported offers are distinct from index assessments and market averages.

The November 3 Freightos publication combines weekly figures from the preceding week with commentary on daily rates in the first days of November. The other assessments shown also predate November 1. These observations do not yet establish how widely the announced GRIs have been accepted.

Follow each series for its own trend. The differences between these figures do not establish a representative range for an individual booking. Compare actual quotes for the same port pair, equipment, sailing period and charge inclusions, and confirm whether the quoted space is available.

The Date on Your Container Still Matters

An announced GRI does not establish what a particular shipment will pay. Check the governing tariff or rate agreement, the quote’s validity and the event that determines rate applicability, as our guide to GRI effective dates explains.

For shipments in US foreign ocean commerce governed by an applicable published carrier tariff, 46 CFR 520.7(c) ties the applicable rates, charges and rules to the date the carrier or its agent receives the cargo, including receipt by an originating carrier in through transportation. Terminal gate-in and vessel loading are not automatically the relevant receipt event. For service contracts and other negotiated rate arrangements, confirm the governing terms with the carrier or forwarder.

A blank sailing or roll deserves a rate check if it affects quote validity or other agreed terms. A later departure alone does not establish that a higher rate applies. Record the vessel change and relevant container events, then confirm the billing basis in writing.

If your team compares booking schedules and container events across carrier portals, see how operations teams monitor sailing changes and available container milestones in one place.

Why the November GRIs Face Resistance

Seasonal import demand is expected to ease. NRF and Hackett Associates’ October 8 Global Port Tracker release forecasts container imports at the covered US ports of 2.25 million TEU in October and 2 million TEU in November, a month-on-month reduction of about 11%. In its October 29 assessment, Drewry expected further transpacific rate reductions the following week, even with six blank sailings announced compared with five that week. The Loadstar also reported diminishing prospects for the November increases to stick.

Some urgent holiday cargo is shifting to air. Freight Right says ocean transit no longer fits the delivery windows for some last-minute replenishment shipments. Freightos reported China–North America air rates up 9% to $7.76/kg, a high for the year. The two modes face different seasonal pressures, so ocean pricing should be assessed against ocean demand and capacity indicators.

Drewry’s reading had already turned. Its Shanghai–Los Angeles rate rose from $7,884 on October 15 to $8,007 on October 22, then fell to $7,514 on October 29. That leaves it $370 below its mid-October level. Freightos presents a firmer picture, with its West Coast index approximately level since reaching the $8,300 range in September.

Why a Slide Back Isn’t Guaranteed

Freightos puts transpacific prices about $5,500/FEU above their pre-peak level and suggests the short window before pre-Lunar New Year demand may limit a return to that baseline. Freight Right expects broadly stable rates through the first half of November with possible modest declines, and its earlier October 19 update forecasts a January rebound. Xeneta’s October 2 outlook envisaged rates of $4,500 to $5,500/FEU to the West Coast and $6,000 to $7,000/FEU to the East Coast over the following three months. These are forecasts from different dates, with outcomes dependent on demand, capacity and disruption.

Labor negotiations remain a near-term risk. PMA’s October 30 statement confirms that it and ILWU Local 26 signed an extension through 5 p.m. Pacific on November 4. According to PMA, the roughly 250 watchmen work at terminals handling about 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo. These are estimates of the terminals’ cargo shares; the extent of any disruption remains uncertain. Freightos identifies a potential strike as one factor that could support rates. Our LA–Long Beach post covers shipment and access records to retain for potential D&D disputes; use current terminal notices for operating status.

What to Check Before You Book

Quote basis. Ask whether the November 1 increase is included, in full or in part, and obtain a breakdown of freight and separately applicable charges.
Validity and applicable date. Get the quote’s end date and governing rate terms in writing. Establish the relevant carrier-receipt event for applicable US tariff shipments, and confirm any different basis under the governing rate agreement.
Contract language. Check whether your contract permits GRI-related adjustments and how they apply. A spot-market movement does not automatically change a contract rate.
A consistent benchmark. Follow one series for your lane over time. Compare quotes on matching port pairs, equipment and charge inclusions.
Sailing exposure. Confirm the current vessel and estimated departure time for each booking. Ask how a roll would affect quote validity or other rate terms, and retain the relevant container-event records.
Next readings. Watch for Drewry’s expected November 5 assessment and the weekly FBX figures on November 6. Freightos’ next weekly commentary is expected around November 10.
LA–Long Beach status. Recheck the Local 26 negotiations and your terminal’s operating and gate notices before dispatching trucks. The stated extension runs through November 4 at 5 p.m. Pacific.