Spot rates from China to the US West Coast reached $8,446 per FEU on September 23 on the Freightos Baltic Daily Index, nearly double their 12-month average. One major explanation has been the run of typhoons that has congested Chinese export hubs since mid-July.
Port data through September 20 complicates that. In the latest Tradlinx Port Congestion Index, pre-berth waits at South China’s largest gateways fell sharply while the rate kept climbing, and a new downstream pressure point is building at Los Angeles and Long Beach, where short-window pre-berth waits are rising faster than the two-week average. For importers paying the premium on October sailings, the arrival is becoming the part of the transit most likely to slip, as a late berth pushes discharge past the dates that delivery and drayage plans were built on.
What Is Holding the Rate Up
The comparison with Asia-Mediterranean shows how loosely rates are following demand. The China-to-Mediterranean index fell to $3,591 per FEU, less than half its July peak of $7,540, while FreightWaves’ SONAR booking data shows bookings from Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian into five major Mediterranean ports up 38% from a year ago. A West Coast box now costs 2.35 times as much as a Mediterranean one. In January, the Mediterranean box was the more expensive of the two by a factor of 1.7.
On the trans-Pacific, carriers are turning away fewer West Coast bookings than a year ago, 8.3% against 10.1%. That suggests the space exists and is being rationed through price. Blank sailings add to the squeeze, with nine announced in a single week this month ahead of China’s National Day holiday from October 1.
Analysts cited by FreightWaves expect one more push on rates before the holiday, then a possible easing as congestion clears and withheld capacity returns to the Pacific. At the southern hubs, the port data shows that clearing was already underway by mid-September.
South China Cleared First
| Port | Band | 2-week avg (h) | vs prior 2 weeks (h) | 1-week (h) | Last 3 days (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenzhen (4 terminals) | CONGESTED | 11.5 | −8.8 | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| Hong Kong | CONGESTED → BUSY | 8.4 | −2.8 | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| Qingdao | STABLE → LOW | 3.5 | −2.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Tianjin | STABLE → LOW | 4.6 | −2.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| Shanghai | BUSY | 8.8 | +1.5 | 10.0 | 12.2 |
| Ningbo | BUSY → CONGESTED | 10.7 | +3.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 |
Shenzhen, measured across four terminals including Yantian and Shekou, averaged 11.5 hours of pre-berth wait over the two weeks. That is 8.8 hours less than the prior period, and its last three days came in at 8.7 hours. It remains in the CONGESTED band, but each shorter window reads lower than the one before it.
Yantian on its own, a primary trans-Pacific loading port for South China, went from a one-month average of 31.3 hours to 12.4 hours over the last three days.
Qingdao and Tianjin dropped from STABLE to LOW. Hong Kong stepped down from CONGESTED to BUSY at 8.4 hours, although its last three days ran higher, at 10.4.
The index averages the wait across vessel calls at each port. Its readings therefore sit well below the multi-day waits reported for large mainline ships during the August typhoon closures, and its main value here is the direction each port is moving.
Shanghai and Ningbo Are Still Building
The Yangtze and Zhejiang gateways moved the other way. Shanghai stayed BUSY at 8.8 hours, 1.5 hours above the prior period, and its readings rise with each shorter window: 8.1 hours over one month, 8.8 over two weeks, 10.0 over one week and 12.2 over the last three days.
Ningbo moved into CONGESTED at 10.7 hours, up 3.6 hours or 50%, with a one-week reading of 12.5 hours. Its last three days eased to 9.1 hours. Short-window readings move on a small number of vessel calls, so the next edition will show whether that was a turn or a pause.
For cargo loading at Shanghai or Ningbo in the days before the holiday, origin delay remains a live risk to the ETD on the booking.
The Fastest-Rising Delay Is Now at LA and Long Beach
| Port | Band | 1-month (h) | 2-week (h) | 1-week (h) | Last 3 days (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | STABLE | 8.5 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 18.6 |
| Long Beach | STABLE | 8.5 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 18.6 |
| Vancouver | STABLE | 5.6 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| Tacoma | LOW | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
Los Angeles and Long Beach are both still rated STABLE, and their two-week average of 9.7 hours is 24% above the prior period. The shorter windows show the pace picking up: 12.1 to 12.2 hours over one week and 18.6 hours over the last three days, nearly double the two-week figure.
The pressure is specific to San Pedro Bay. Vancouver and Tacoma both read lower over their last three days than over two weeks.
Booking data points the same way. SONAR shows China-to-West Coast bookings up about 50% from a year ago, with nearly all of that growth going to Long Beach, where bookings on all three origin lanes have more than doubled.
A later berth is only the first delay these boxes meet. Rail-bound imports at the two ports were already spending 6.75 days at the terminal in August before moving inland, and drayage capacity was tightening heading into October.
When berthing slips and vessels arrive bunched, the ETA on the carrier schedule and the date a container is actually available can drift days apart. Your dray booking needs to follow actual availability, while the free-time clock depends on the applicable carrier, terminal and contract terms. If your team is re-cutting delivery plans each time a berthing window moves at LA or Long Beach, see how ops teams monitor port delays and container ETAs across carriers in one view.
What to Re-Check on October Trans-Pacific Cargo
- Shanghai and Ningbo loads: Compare the booked ETD with the port’s one-week trend. Both ports were running above their one-month averages going into the holiday.
- Holiday sailings: Confirm your vessel is not on a blank-sailing list for the National Day weeks, and get the replacement sailing confirmed in writing if it is.
- LA and Long Beach arrivals: Rebuild delivery dates from a berth-adjusted ETA. A plan built on the 9.7-hour two-week average understates the last three days’ 18.6-hour reading by about 9 hours.
- Rail-bound boxes: Add terminal rail dwell on top of the berthing delay when setting inland ETAs.
- Free time: Check when free time starts against the actual discharge and availability dates, and plan drayage against the container’s actual availability and last free day.
Further Reading
- Trans-Pacific rates soar, Mediterranean sinks, and demand doesn’t explain either (FreightWaves)
- Tradlinx Port Congestion Index: Sep 7–20, 2026 interactive report
- China port congestion forces carrier schedule changes as vessel delays mount (Kuehne+Nagel)
Port wait figures are from the Tradlinx Port Congestion Index (Sep 7–20, 2026 edition), derived from the Port Congestion API. Port-level figures are average pre-berth waiting times in hours over 3-day, 1-week, 2-week and 1-month moving windows, and period changes are the report’s own comparison against Aug 25 – Sep 7, 2026. Shenzhen combines four terminal codes. Rate and booking figures are FreightWaves SONAR data, including the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBXD.CNAW, FBXD.CMED), with index values as of September 23, 2026. Confirm schedules, blank sailings and free time against your own carrier bookings and contracts. Port data as of September 20, 2026.
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