The Panama Canal Authority announced on 4 September that vessels transiting the Neopanamax Locks will continue operating under the existing maximum authorized draft of 14.63 metres (48.0 feet) Tropical Fresh Water. The reduction to 14.48 metres (47.5 feet) TFW that had been scheduled for 1 October is postponed. The announcement names no replacement date.

That is the second deferral of the same step in just over two weeks. The other constraint on the autumn calendar, the slot reduction landing on 15 September, has not moved.

What the September 4 announcement says

ACP attributed the decision to its latest review of Gatun Lake levels and weather projections. Keeping the current draft in place, it said, gives customers greater continuity for voyage planning and vessel deployment. The Canal added that it will continue evaluating water conditions and will provide advance notice of any future changes that may affect vessel draft requirements.

Draft step	Originally effective	Current status	Source
14.63 m (48.0 ft) TFW	26 August 2026	In effect from 2 September 2026	A-29-2026, 20 August
14.48 m (47.5 ft) TFW	3 September 2026	Deferred to 1 October 2026	A-29-2026, 20 August
14.48 m (47.5 ft) TFW	1 October 2026	Deferred, no new date	ACP announcement, 4 September

The 47.5-foot step has been moved twice and never withdrawn. Every ACP statement on it has attached the same condition, which is that the setting follows watershed conditions rather than a fixed schedule.

The slot reduction is still on for September 15

Advisory A-29-2026 set the daily booking slots at both lock sets, and the 4 September announcement left those numbers alone.

Lock set	Daily slots for booking dates beginning 4 September	Daily slots for booking dates beginning 15 September
Neopanamax	9	9
Panamax	25	23
Total	34	32

The same advisory warns that a reduction in daily transits may increase waiting times for vessels arriving without a secured reservation, and states that a confirmed reservation through the Transit Reservation System is the only mechanism that guarantees a transit date.

The risk is already visible in non-booked waiting times. The Maritime Executive reported on 5 September that 85 ships with reservations were waiting as of 3 September, against four vessels without one, three of them Neopanamax. The average wait for a northbound non-booked transit was running at 8.8 days.

The allocation rules for the nine daily Neopanamax slots have also changed. For booking dates beginning 13 September, A-31-2026 gives full container vessels a minimum of five slots per date within a 63-slot weekly allocation. Separately, A-30-2026, effective from 25 August, placed full container vessels last in the priority order for slots that are cancelled or otherwise become available, behind LNG, LPG and car carrier/RoRo vessels. We covered those changes in 63 Slots, New Priorities.

Put together, booking status is now the more immediate scheduled constraint for an October Panama routing, while draft remains a variable to keep watching. If a booked transit is cancelled or reallocated and the first signal you get is a revised discharge date, see how ops teams catch transit and ETA changes across carriers in one place.

Why the deferral should not become a Q4 assumption

The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. WMO noted this is the first time one of its El Niño updates has been that unequivocal, and expects the event to strengthen to very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year.

ACP has been explicit about what that means for notice periods. In the 20 August advisory it said weather conditions are changing more rapidly than originally anticipated, that it will make every reasonable effort to announce future adjustments as far in advance as possible, and that the timing of those announcements will depend on evolving conditions and the availability of updated information.

On the water itself, The Maritime Executive reported Gatun Lake holding at around 84 feet as of 5 September after dipping slightly below that level at the end of August, with Canal projections showing a rise of as much as 0.4 feet into October before the decline resumes.

48 feet is the allowance in force today. It is not a settled parameter for the fourth quarter, and nothing in the 4 September announcement makes it one.

What to re-check before October volumes commit

• Booking status per string. Confirm which October Panama transits in your carrier’s schedule sit on confirmed reservations, and what the rotation looks like if one is cancelled and clears to another segment.
• The draft your carrier is planning against. Ask whether October stowage is built at 48.0 feet or already conservatively at 47.5 feet. The two produce different intake figures on a full Neopanamax call.
• A documented reduction path. If plans are built at 48.0 feet, establish now what comes off the vessel if the 47.5-foot step returns on short notice, rather than deciding it during the week it lands.
• The 15 September change is Panamax-side. Nine daily Neopanamax slots are unchanged. The two-slot reduction falls entirely on Panamax Super vessels, whose allocation drops from 20 to 18 daily slots, while Regular vessels remain at five.

Further Reading

• Panama Canal Postpones Neopanamax Draft Adjustment — Panama Canal Authority, 4 September 2026
• Panama Canal Adopts Additional Measures to Address Reduced Precipitation in the Canal Watershed — Panama Canal Authority, 20 August 2026
• Advisory to Shipping A-29-2026 — Panama Canal Authority
• Panama Canal Pushes Back Planned Draft Cut for Big Ships — The Maritime Executive
• El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027 — World Meteorological Organization

---

Draft limits, effective dates and daily slot figures are sourced from Panama Canal Authority Advisory to Shipping A-29-2026 dated 20 August 2026 and the ACP announcement of 4 September 2026. Gatun Lake levels and vessel queue figures are as reported by The Maritime Executive on 5 September 2026 and describe conditions as of 3 to 5 September. El Niño probabilities are from the World Meteorological Organization update of 3 September 2026. ACP has described these measures as responsive to watershed conditions and has stated that the timing of future announcements depends on evolving conditions, so confirm current draft limits, slot availability and booking status against the Panama Canal Authority’s published advisories and your carrier’s booking confirmation before committing cargo.

Need help interpreting this disruption or your shipment?
For a quick question, chat with Tradlinx on WhatsApp. For a deeper discussion, book a time below.

Prefer email? Contact us directly at min.so@tradlinx.com (Americas), sondre.lyndon@tradlinx.com (Europe), or henry.jo@tradlinx.com (EMEA/Asia).